NHL Power Rankings: The wait for our first edition is over

A new season called for a fresh approach at Power Rankings HQ.

Sure, we could’ve assembled our little list last week — but there were teams that had only played three games. It felt wrong. Integrity counts, professionally and personally, and some sample sizes are simply too small.

So, we decided to hold out a bit longer. And folks, seven days made all the difference. For our first installment of the 2024-25 season, we included one bit about each team that’s piquing our interest. Good, bad, important, irrelevant — we’ve got plenty of time to see how things shake out. That’s the fun part.

Sean’s ranking: 1
Dom’s ranking: 1

Jacob Trouba has a 60 percent expected goals rate so far this season and is showing he still has game as a second-pair defender. We’re going to guess that’s pure spite-fuel after almost being traded this past summer; whatever it is, it’s clearly working. The Rangers look unreal so far this season and Trouba stepping up is a big reason why.

Sean’s ranking: 2
Dom’s ranking: 2

Dallas’ power play truly stunk through the team’s first seven games, scoring just 3.44 goals per 60 and generating 6.49 expected goals per 60, both 28th in the league. The solution? Throw it all in the blender and spread the wealth through two even units. It worked like magic against the Bruins as the team went 3-for-5 with the man advantage — with both units scoring. Good thing for Miro Heiskanen who got his first point of the season.

Sean’s ranking: 3
Dom’s ranking: 5

The Wild look like a wagon right now, finding the perfect early balance between stout defense and electric offense. Well, from their stars anyway.

While everyone on the Wild has a positive Defensive Rating to start the season, only five have a positive Offensive Rating. Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, Mats Zuccarello, Joel Eriksson Ek and Marco Rossi are the five and have combined for 18 goals through seven games. The rest of the team? Six. And that includes a goalie goal! For this wagon to keep rolling, the depth needs to step up.

Sean’s ranking: 5
Dom’s ranking: 4

The Jets remain perfect and there are a lot of things that’ll catch your eye with a record like that. The most intriguing for now might be Neal Pionk, a frequent lightning rod amongst Jets fans who has silenced many critics with his play so far this season. Through seven games Pionk has nine points and has been the team’s most consistent defenseman at five-on-five. One of the key concerns for Winnipeg entering the season was its depth after the top pair. If this is the Pionk the Jets can expect, they’ll continue to be a force.

Sean’s ranking: 6
Dom’s ranking: 3

Baby Barky has been red hot with Real Barky out. Anton Lundell has stepped right in on the top line and hasn’t missed a beat, scoring nine points in nine games to start the season — with some dominant possession numbers to boot. That’s a really nice breakout to see after Lundell just signed an extension, one that will once again be a bargain for the Panthers. Just like the rest of them.

Sean’s ranking: 4
Dom’s ranking: 8

Tampa Bay’s top line is electric with the addition of Jake Guentzel, but an underrated byproduct of that addition was Brandon Hagel sliding down. That’s given the Lightning a second powerhouse line. Hagel and Anthony Cirelli each have nine points in seven games and have dominated together at five-on-five, earning 69 percent of the expected goals — while soaking up the toughest assignments, too. The Lightning may not be deep, but the top six is stacked.

Sean’s ranking: 7
Dom’s ranking: 6

The Corsi Canes know their brand and execute it to perfection. It doesn’t matter if they lost their second pair and a star winger in the offseason, they’re still going to do what they do best, which is to dominate the shot clock. Through six games they have a 61.9 percent Corsi, nearly six percentage points on the next-best team. Classic Canes!

Sean’s ranking: 9
Dom’s ranking: 7

From 0-4-0 to 4-4-0 — the Avs are back. And so is Cale Makar with 15 points in eight games to lead the league. Perhaps ‘back’ is unfair, but even with 90 points last season, Makar didn’t quite look like himself for much of the second half. Through the first eight games, he looks a lot closer to his usual self, especially in terms of out-chancing the other team. Right now he’s rocking a 68 percent expected goals rate. Yeah, he’s back — and maybe even better than ever.

Sean’s ranking: 8
Dom’s ranking: 9

It’s too early to pencil the Capitals in for another playoff appearance, but it also seems clear that this a better team than the one we saw last season. Two big reasons for that: Their new forwards look pretty good.

They rolled the dice on Pierre-Luc Dubois bouncing back as a top-six point producer, and he’s done just that, clicking with Connor McMichael and a rejuvenated Tom Wilson. With them on the ice, Washington has outscored opponents 6-3. Andrew Mangiapane, meanwhile, has been a quality play-driver on the bottom six, with the Caps controlling nearly 70 percent of the expected goals in his minutes.

Sean’s ranking: 10
Dom’s ranking: 10

We said it in the Canucks’ season preview: It was possible — likely, even — for J.T. Miller to regress as a point producer while also adding substance to his game. That’s what we’ve seen thus far. Vancouver’s shooting percentage with him on the ice has dropped from about 13 percent to 8.1 percent, but their actual and expected goals percentage are both up significantly. That bodes well for the Canucks moving forward.

Sean’s ranking: 12
Dom’s ranking: 11

Shea Theodore is $50 million richer after signing a massive extension Thursday and while he is crushing it on the scoresheet (seven points in six games), he’s curiously struggling at five-on-five. His 37 percent xG rate is ahead of only Nicolas Hague this season among Vegas defensemen, and would be a massive departure from his usual greatness on that front. That’s something to watch going forward — especially with the entire team looking rough on that front.

Sean’s ranking: 11
Dom’s ranking: 12

The Oilers, off to a slow start? Imagine that. Given how things worked out for them in 2023-24, it doesn’t make sense to sound any alarm bells. It’s worth pointing out, though, that one of their big offseason acquisitions has been abysmal. Victor Arvidsson, expected to score 30 goals or so in the top six this season, has zero through seven games. His shot rate at five-on-five is way down, too, to 6.5 per 60 from nearly 11 the past three seasons.

Sean’s ranking: 13
Dom’s ranking: 13

The Leafs are 4-4-0 to start the season — nothing new there, they always look mid in October (and April, hey-ooooo). What is concerning, though, is an extremely tepid power play that has just 3.7 goals per 60 this season. It would be reassuring if the team was at least getting looks with the man advantage, but right now the Leafs are struggling to even generate chances to their usual degree with just 7.3 expected goals per 60, good for 15th in the league. Last year they were fifth at 9.7.

Sean’s ranking: 15
Dom’s ranking: 14

It’s possible that the goaltending is not fixed after all! Through 10 games Jacob Markstrom and Jake Allen have combined for an .824 save percentage with their last two games being especially egregious.

Then again, it’s possible that goaltending wasn’t the team’s only problem. The duo may have allowed 2.8 goals above expected collectively, but that puts their expected save percentage at .841 on the season. That’s a massive red flag for their defense. The Devils desperately need to clean things up without the puck.

Sean’s ranking: 14
Dom’s ranking: 16

Alex Turcotte may not be playing difficult minutes, but he’s absolutely crushing the minutes he’s getting to the tune of a 69 percent xG rate while outscoring opponents 6-2. That’s a really encouraging start for the fifth pick from 2019 and this could be a sign that he’s ready to turn into an NHL difference-maker. Development is different for every player and at 23 he’s still young enough to have legit upside.

Sean’s ranking: 19
Dom’s ranking: 15

The Flames have been a nice surprise so far this season and it’s hard not to notice a familiar face atop their scoring leaderboard: Jonathan Huberdeau. He’s picked up right where he left off from last year’s second half with seven points in seven games to start the season. Good for him!

Sean’s ranking: 17
Dom’s ranking: 18

For the past two seasons, Thomas Chabot has produced at a 50-point pace despite injuries and plenty of issues elsewhere. This season, though, he’s got three points in six games to go along with the worst expected goals rate (37.4) among Ottawa’s defensemen and a goals against/60 of 6.58, last in the league among defensemen with at least 50 minutes played. Ugly stuff.

18. Utah HC, 4-3-1

Sean’s ranking: 18
Dom’s ranking: 17

Logan Cooley has yet to score this season, but one encouraging development on his end is that he’s generating more dangerous chances for himself. While his shot rate hasn’t moved much at five-on-five, his xG rate has gone way up from 0.67 per 60 to 1.13. If he keeps that up, the goals will come.

Sean’s ranking: 16
Dom’s ranking: 19

The wildest part of the Islanders’ 2023-24 season is that they were playoff-caliber almost in spite of Ilya Sorokin. From Jan. 1, he put up a .905 save percentage, which is just a shade above average, allowed nearly three goals more than expected and lost his net to Semyon Varlamov.

In October, though, he’s looked more like the guy who nearly won a Vezina Trophy in 2022-23, with a .947 save percentage and 2.77 goals saved above expected. He’s significantly outplaying Varlamov, too. It’s tough to imagine a better sign for the Isles, especially given the loss of top-line addition Anthony Duclair.

Sean’s ranking: 20
Dom’s ranking: 20

It’s impossible to mention anyone but Philip Broberg here. The Blues took a calculated risk on his talent this summer with a pricey offersheet, and he’s more than lived up to it so far with seven points in eight games while outscoring opponents 6-1 at five-on-five. He’s the exact element this team has been missing from the back end and he’s looked excellent so far.

21. Boston Bruins, 3-4-1

Sean’s ranking: 21
Dom’s ranking: 21

In the entire analytics era, Boston’s lowest shot attempt ratio in a season was 48.2 percent last season. It was only the second time the Bruins failed to out-shoot their opponents over a full season — and maybe it was a sign of things to come. This season the Bruins are sitting at just 44.5 percent ahead of only Anaheim, Detroit and Montreal. That’s really bad company.

Sean’s ranking: 22
Dom’s ranking: 23

Brandon Montour has looked excellent so far with the Kraken and if he keeps this up he’ll be worth every penny for Seattle. In the team’s first eight games, he has five points — one of which helped tie the game against the Jets on Thursday — and is dominating possession while taking on the toughest minutes with Jamie Oleksiak. He’s made a terrific first impression.

23. Detroit Red Wings, 4-3-0

Sean’s ranking: 23
Dom’s ranking: 24

The Red Wings just won three straight games averaging 18.3 shots for and 36.3 shots against in those contests. Incredible. No notes.

In that case, we have to give a lot of credit to the team’s goaltending so far. A Cam Talbot and Alex Lyon duo didn’t feel very inspiring to start the season, but they’ve done their part. Talbot is sporting a .913 save percentage and has saved 2.4 goals above expected. Lyon has been even better with a .955 save percentage and has saved seven goals above expected. They’ve been the team’s backbone so far.

Sean’s ranking: 26
Dom’s ranking: 22

Things have not gone according to plan for the Predators thus far; at five-on-five, the process has been meh (46.9 expected goals percentage) and the results have been worse (28.5 actual goals percentage). Adding Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos to a solid team raised expectations, and they haven’t been met.

Still, it’s worth noting that they’re at least generating looks on the power play, where they’re third in expected goals/60 at 12.7. They’re just not finishing (6.1 actual goals/60). There’s too much talent on that unit to think it’ll stay cold forever.

Sean’s ranking: 24
Dom’s ranking: 25

Tage Thompson’s numbers are outstanding. Eight points in eight games, a goals percentage of about 64, an actual goals percentage of 57 — if you were hoping for a bounce-back season from the big fella, it’s tough to imagine a better start.

On top of that, though, he’s back to doing stuff like this:

“THAT. WAS. MAGIC.” 🪄

Tage Thompson UNLOADS on a one-timer pic.twitter.com/R3Cuf5zR9Y

— B/R Open Ice (@BR_OpenIce) October 23, 2024

Amazing what two healthy wrists can do.

26. Anaheim Ducks, 3-2-1

Sean’s ranking: 25
Dom’s ranking: 26

The Ducks’ net now — and perhaps in the future — belongs to Lukáš Dostál. Dostál has been fantastic in his first five starts, putting up a .936 save percentage and the second-most goals saved above expected (8.21) in the NHL. He started last season strong, too, with a .921 save percentage in October, but couldn’t keep the train on the tracks. It’ll be interesting to see how Ducks coach Greg Cronin divides labor between Dostál and John Gibson once Gibson returns from his appendectomy.

Sean’s ranking: 28
Dom’s ranking: 27

Adam Fantilli has plenty of time to build on his rookie season, but it hasn’t happened just yet. In 2023-24, he put up a 2.05 points/60 at five-on-five that was third on the Blue Jackets. So far this season, he’s managed just two goals and zero assists in six games alongside an expected goal share of about 28 percent. Nowhere to go but up.

Sean’s ranking: 27
Dom’s ranking: 28

This is not a post meant to imply that Sidney Crosby is “washed,” in the parlance of our times. Please do not interpret it as such. It’s fair to say, though, that he hasn’t been good through his first eight games. His expected goal share is second-worst on the Penguins — and it’s not because of his offense.

Pittsburgh’s defensive play with him on the ice has been brutal; 4.88 expected goals against per 60 is the third-worst mark in the league among forwards with at least 50 minutes of ice time. The only players behind him: Anaheim’s Robby Fabri and linemate Bryan Rust.

Sean’s ranking: 29
Dom’s ranking: 29

It’s crucial for the Blackhawks that a few young players other than Connor Bedard turn into true long-term pieces this season rather than just prospects, and that starts with Lukas Reichel. A first-round pick who showed some real flashes before a lost 2023-24 season, Reichel has done some good things in his first three games, putting up two primary assists and an expected goal share of about 55. It seems like it’s time for Chicago to figure out whether he can slot in as a true second-line center.

30. Montreal Canadiens, 2-4-1

Sean’s ranking: 31
Dom’s ranking: 30

What’s working for the Canadiens: their top line (Cole Caufield–Nick Suzuki–Juraj Slafkovský) was outscoring opponents 6-3 before Slafkovský’s injury.

What’s not working … basically everything else. They’re carrying an expected goal share of 38 percent; for context, only two teams (22-23 Ducks, 14-15 Sabres) have finished a season below 40. Defensively, they’ve been heinous, with a 4.1 expected goals against per 60, 0.61 more than the worst team ever.

Sean’s ranking: 30
Dom’s ranking: 31

We couldn’t let the week pass without resharing one of the wildest stats of the season so far.

Through six games, the Flyers have started games with 18 (!) different forward line combinations. Not sure how anyone is going to develop chemistry when things are in the blender that often.

— Kevin Kurz (@KKurzNHL) October 23, 2024

Long live the Tortorella line blender. Beyond that, Matvei Michkov’s production thus far has also caught our eye, for reasons good (a team-leading seven points) and less good (zero at even strength, where the Flyers have been outscored 6-0 with him on the ice).

Sean’s ranking: 32
Dom’s ranking: 32

Will Smith was a healthy scratch against the Kings on Thursday night and for good reason: He does not look NHL-ready at the moment. The Sharks have done their part to shelter him with the easiest usage on the team, but through six games he has zero points and is sporting one of the lowest xG rates on the team. Some AHL seasoning might be what’s best for San Jose’s prized prospect.

(Top photo of Miro Heiskanen: Codie McLachlan / Getty Images)