Disclaimer: Bold predictions often go wrong.
Two weeks ago, when asked to give one for the Celtics, I wrote Baylor Scheierman would contribute from the start of his rookie season. Said rookie season hasn’t even started yet and I already regret that choice deeply. Scheierman struggled enough throughout the preseason to give me second thoughts from the moment I released my first thoughts into the world. Whoops.
Over time, I’ll probably feel just as dumb about some of the following 15 bold Celtics predictions. But for now, I’m convinced I nailed them all.
1. Pritchard will finish top-five in Sixth Man of the Year voting
Is this a long shot? Absolutely. Twelve players received votes for Sixth Man of the Year last season. Payton Pritchard did not. To receive consideration for the award, which often goes to a high scorer, he would need to boost his counting stats significantly. He averaged 9.6 points and 3.4 assists per game last season. That won’t cut it for the voters.
Pritchard is capable of more if the opportunity arises. It will this season. The Celtics should be cautious with the 34-year-old Jrue Holiday, who played in the Olympics after the team’s long playoff run. If he sits out more regularly, Pritchard will benefit. He averaged 15.8 points, 6.1 assists and 3.7 rebounds per game during the 13 contests Holiday missed. The Celtics were fairly healthy last season. If anyone else in the rotation goes down for an extended period, some of the additional responsibilities will fall on Pritchard. His game scales up when the Celtics need more from him.
2. The Celtics’ worst stretch will come after Porziņģis’ return
Game 1 of the NBA Finals was replayed on television Wednesday night. Watching provided a good reminder that Kristaps Porziņģis can reach top form quickly after a long layoff. He destroyed the Dallas Mavericks on both ends during his first game in more than a month. They had no answers for him.
Porziņģis’ return this season won’t be as tidy. Even if he comes back fully healthy, with no signs of the rare injury he suffered later in the finals, the Celtics will need to relearn how to play with the big man after adapting to life without him. Nobody else on their roster plays a similar style. None of their other centers post up consistently. The rest of the team will take a bit of time to remember, “Oh, yeah, sometimes it’s best to just forget about other plans and dump it down low to the 7-foot-2 dominator.”
Don’t expect a huge slide after Porziņģis makes his season debut, but the Celtics will have some turbulence in the days and weeks to follow.
3. Kornet will finish top-five in offensive rebounding rate (again) but not officially
Quietly, Luke Kornet put up some monster advanced statistics last season. His offensive rebound rate would have been top-five in the NBA if he had played enough minutes to qualify. His block rate, which would have been top-10, tied him with Rudy Gobert. Kornet consistently gave the Celtics everything they asked from him. He was a force in the paint at both ends during his limited minutes.
Though he should receive more playing time this season with Porziņģis facing a long absence, Kornet will still fall shy of the 1,500 minutes required to qualify him for the league offensive rebound rate leaderboard. If he appears in 70 games, he would need to average 21.4 minutes per game to reach that mark. He won’t do that. Still, he will again finish with one of the league’s best offensive rebound rates. He racked up 11 offensive rebounds over 74 preseason minutes, looking as ready as ever to do damage on the glass.
4. Kornet will lead the team in dunks
Just think of all the strange celebrations Kornet will unleash if he leads the Celtics in dunks. He had 72 last season, which ranked fourth on the team behind Porziņģis (89), Tatum (86) and Brown (76). While Porziņģis is out, likely disqualifying him from a chase at the Celtics’ dunk championship, Kornet should benefit from more playing time and, presumably, more slam dunks.
Kornet has occasionally pulled out Stromile Swift’s old celebration after highlight plays. Swift, a pogo stick in the early 2000s, set a career-high of 112 dunks during the 2001-2002 season.* Don’t expect Kornet to reach that number, but he should aim for it, just because. (*Yes, this is the dumbest stat I have researched so far this season.)
Luke Kornet has become the Celtics’ master of celebrations. (Brian Fluharty / Getty Images)
5. Brown will average four assists per game
Jaylen Brown averaged a career-high 3.6 assists per game last season while playing the best all-around basketball of his life. He has ever so gradually improved in that category over the last four seasons after making a big jump during the 2020-21 campaign.
Brown is ready to make another jump. He’s a more willing passer now. He sees the game better. His progress was especially evident whenever Tatum hit the bench last season. During such situations, Brown averaged nearly seven assists per 100 possessions, taking on a bigger playmaking role than ever before.
“I think I’ve definitely worked on my playmaking ability,” Brown said recently. “Just being able to see the floor, make great reads. I feel like I’m in a good space in that, just keeping the floor balanced and making the right plays and creating plays for my teammates. So I’m looking forward to doing that and taking on that role this year as well. Being a playmaker, finding guys, and just keep putting pressure on the defense.”
Brown still has room to grow. That’s why…
6. Brown will make an All-NBA team and an All-Defensive team
Brown spoke out last season after he failed to make an All-NBA team. He did so again after failing to make an All-Defensive team. After winning the Eastern Conference Finals MVP and Finals MVP en route to his first championship, his reputation is bigger now. That matters for postseason awards.
Brown reached another level during the playoffs. He is in wildly impressive physical condition. He’s ready to build on the best season of his career. This time, the regular season hardware will come his way.
7. Holiday won’t play enough games for All-Defensive team
Plenty of attention was paid to the caution the Celtics showed with Al Horford as they sat the big man for each of the first four preseason games. Not as much was paid to the quieter way they paced Holiday. He played only 48 minutes during the preseason; the other starters outside of Horford all played at least 90.
It made sense to limit Holiday’s playing time during the preseason. In addition to the long playoff run and his busy summer, Holiday is entering his 16th NBA season. He needs rest as well as reps. With the organization hoping to limit his load, he will play fewer than the 65 games required to be eligible for certain regular season awards, thus snapping his streak of four consecutive All-Defensive team berths.
8. Celtics will average seven blocks per game after Porziņģis returns
One underrated subplot of the Celtics’ championship season: Their ridiculous rim protection. Point guard Derrick White ranked 16th in blocks per game. Porziņģis, who finished 10th in blocks, led five Celtics in the top-56 of that category. As a team, Boston tied the Oklahoma City Thunder for the league lead at 6.6 blocks per game.
The Celtics will exceed that mark from the date of Porziņģis’ return through the end of the regular season. Jordan Walsh and Xavier Tillman, two potential rotation additions, will each pile up stocks. The backcourt of White and Holiday will continue to protect the rim better than any other duo of guards. The Celtics will block plenty of shots without Porziņģis, but will have the league’s best rim protection once he comes back.
9. Walsh won’t play any games in Maine
Jordan Walsh played just nine games in the NBA during his rookie season. He struggled in July’s summer league. As recently as two weeks ago, I would not have predicted a role for him on the Celtics this season.
Walsh changed my mind with a solid preseason. He appears to be the frontrunner to earn Oshae Brissett’s minutes at the end of the Boston bench. It’s unclear how tight his hold on that role will be, or even if he has that role, but he should be finished with the G League if he can keep playing the way he did over five preseason games.
Jordan Walsh looks likely to pick up Oshae Brissett’s minutes this season. (Sarah Stier / Getty Images)
10. Tillman will not crack 30 percent on 3-point attempts
Tillman’s 3-point stroke looked promising throughout the preseason while he made six of 11 attempts from downtown. It would be a big deal for the big man to knock down shots consistently, especially while Porziņģis is out.
It’s not going to happen. Tillman hasn’t topped 30 percent on 3-point attempts since his rookie season. He is a 26.7 percent career 3-point shooter. He has never been good from the free-throw line, either. Though some players do learn how to shoot years into a career, there’s not nearly enough evidence yet for me to believe in Tillman’s jumper.
11. Springer will be traded
The Celtics acquired Jaden Springer in February for a second-round pick. They were hoping the 22-year-old (then 21) would develop into a rotation piece to bolster the team’s young talent. It’s far too early to rule out the chance that he becomes a helpful player somewhere, but he might be running out of time to do it in Boston.
Springer is in the final year of his rookie contract. Assuming the Celtics are against trading any of their rotation players, Springer’s $4.02 million contract is the biggest salary they will be able to dangle at the trade deadline. That won’t be enough to chase a big fish, but could allow them to pursue a more established piece for the end of the bench.
Springer could still mount a push for playing time in Boston, but seemed to fall out of favor as the preseason progressed. The Celtics could move on if he doesn’t force his way into the current team’s plans.
12. Tatum will record three triple-doubles
Jayson Tatum has three career triple-doubles, including the playoffs. He will match that number during the coming season.
Since Tatum recorded double-digit assists only once last regular season, this might be the boldest prediction here. But he almost automatically scores in double digits and he’s quite a rebounder for a perimeter player. He will be a triple-double threat whenever he reaches the 10-assist mark. He did it three times during the playoffs, including twice during the Finals. I’m betting he’ll do it more often during the coming season.
Some have speculated Tatum will feel extra motivation after piling up a couple of DNP-CDs during the Olympics. Regardless of how he approaches that, the Celtics should hope he stays focused on his all-around game. They became champions last season after he and Brown both made significant sacrifices individually.
13. Horford will make at least 30 free throws
Horford’s inability to draw free-throw attempts has grown almost comical over the last couple of seasons. Never great at getting to the line, he rarely does it anymore after years of evolving his game more toward the perimeter. Over the last two seasons, he has attempted 51 free throws combined. By comparison, Tatum doubled that total in a single month twice last season alone.
Horford will make at least 30 free throws this season. That might not sound like much, but he has surpassed that total just once in the last four seasons. At age 38, Horford will continue to see the Celtics limit his minutes played and games played. So close to 40, he won’t be getting any more athletic. Still, he hit the glass a bit harder last season, which should continue based on the Celtics’ emphasis as a team, and he will post up a little more with Porziņģis sidelined. Those two factors will result in a boost in Horford’s free throw attempts.
14. Mazzulla will win Coach of the Year
Joe Mazzulla could not crack the top three in Coach of the Year voting last season even after leading the Celtics to 64 wins and a mighty 11.7 net rating. He finished fourth behind Mark Daigneault, Jamahl Mosely and Chris Finch. Because of the high expectations in Boston, it would take an even better season for Mazzulla to potentially take home the award.
He will do so anyway because…
15. The Celtics will win 67 games and another championship
Boston went 31-6 without Porziņģis last season, including the playoffs. His absence, though significant, won’t derail the Celtics. In addition to returning almost everybody from the championship roster, they also have several young rotation members who should still be ascending. That includes Tatum and Brown, who are 26 and 27, respectively, and have always improved. The roster will become too expensive to keep together forever, but the Celtics will take advantage of their opportunity to repeat.
(Top photo of Jrue Holiday and Jaylen Brown: Maddie Meyer / Getty Images)
