With a fourth straight victory and some losses around them in the AFC, the Bills took a pronounced step toward locking up their division and moved up to second in the conference. The 30-27 win over the Dolphins also kept them within shouting distance of the top-seeded Chiefs.
Those very Chiefs are on the horizon in two weeks, but the Bills will first take on another team desperate for a win in the 4-5 Colts, sitting both one spot and one game out of the playoffs. But what did the film from the Dolphins game reveal?
While it was a great day for the offense, the Dolphins challenged a healthier Bills defense in a way that no team has in about a month. Here’s a look at what stood out on Sunday, and what it means moving forward.
What happened to the defense against the Dolphins?
On paper, the Bills entered their Week 9 matchup with the Dolphins in much better health than when the two sides played one another in Week 2. Star nickel corner Taron Johnson was in the lineup after missing that Week 2 contest, and middle linebacker Terrel Bernard was on the field for the entire matchup. Bernard had to leave the first Dolphins game in the first quarter. Those two are usually difference-makers on the second level, especially with a Miami team that usually emphasizes the running game with backs De’Von Achane and Raheem Mostert. They’re also working in rookie Jaylen Wright a bit more. But even with Johnson and Bernard in the lineup, the Dolphins ran the ball at will.
The Dolphins called 28 designed runs to their backs throughout the game, and 54 percent of the time, they went for at least five yards — 43 percent of the time, they gained at least seven yards. Four of those runs went for at least ten yards. Nine of the attempts generated either a first down or a touchdown. So it really wasn’t just a big play here or there that inflated the Dolphins’ numbers; it was a constant stream of yards and longer drives that helped lead to the Dolphins to the second-best offensive showing against the Bills all season.
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However, the big question is whether future opponents can replicate this or if it was just a matchup flaw against the Dolphins. The answer is a bit of both, which should create a little optimism for how the Bills deal with strong rushing opponents in the future and in knowing what they’ll need to overcome, while also likely bringing the Bills back to some necessary focus on the fundamentals. So what could we see from the film?
The first part is that the Dolphins are unique, almost necessitating that the Bills make a choice in their defending philosophy. When they are at their best — which they were on Sunday — quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is getting the ball out quickly and on target, with multi-layered speed challenging the Bills both on the perimeter and between the tackles. That’s when it really becomes a choice. Do you sell out and limit what the Dolphins can do between the tackles, leaving yourselves more vulnerable on the outside to big plays from receivers Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle? Or, do you perhaps leave the box a bit lighter to provide more attention to the perimeter because you have more bodies up the middle of the field? It’s a difficult choice, but the Bills primarily chose the second option.
Back when the Chiefs were at their most explosive as a passing offense a few years back with Hill on their roster, well before the two-high shell approach took over defenses, the Bills made a similar choice with their defensive philosophy. And the Chiefs were similarly potent with their rushing attack.
There were times on Sunday against the Dolphins where one of the three second-level defenders would be completely out of frame from the end zone angle of the All-22, dealing with some of the pre-snap eye candy Miami employs all game long to keep defenders honest. It’s a rudimentary premise — with one fewer player in the box to defend the run, the more likely the offense is to get more yardage on that designed play. But as long as the Bills kept those runs mostly hemmed in, avoiding the big play moment that they failed to in Baltimore, it gave them a fighting chance to prevent the Dolphins from getting into the end zone. It was the bend-but-don’t-break cliché at its finest.
However, just because the Bills were playing it this way from a theoretical standpoint, it also doesn’t mean they couldn’t have put up more of a fight against the run. Much of that ultimately came down to one-on-one opportunities that the Bills lost far too often on Sunday. In one of my favorite terms used recently around Orchard Park, defensive coordinator Bobby Babich said Monday that they must key on their “block destruction techniques” this week to improve what happened against the Dolphins. That was a big piece of the puzzle as to why the Bills struggled, both on the first and second levels of the defense.
At defensive end, their ability to contain the edge was challenged which led to some poor reps from A.J. Epenesa and Dawuane Smoot, and they even pinned in rookie Javon Solomon on one of his few snaps. At defensive tackle, there were some plays where they’d get bounced out of the running lane. Ed Oliver did fairly well and practice squad elevation Eli Ankou was a bright spot during his 21 snaps. But veteran starter DaQuan Jones was a bit hit or miss, while rotational tackle Austin Johnson struggled to hold up at the line.
The second level, most notably with linebackers Terrel Bernard and Dorian Williams, had a lot of moments with difficulties getting off blocks quickly enough to compromise the rushing lanes. Specifically, Bernard didn’t look like the same player as he did in his first few games, which likely has much to do with the ankle injury that forced him to miss the Week 8 contest in Seattle. Bernard still provided some flashes of early-season play against the run. Along with how the Bills defended the Dolphins, it was likely a perfect storm of scheme meet injury as to why Bernard wasn’t as effective as usual.
The good news for the Bills is few teams possess the perimeter explosiveness that the Dolphins employ. Despite their now 2-6 record, that collection of skill players is one of the most difficult to defend in the NFL. The more challenging news is that the Bills’ defenders need to execute at a far higher level than they did on Sunday, and some of it is personnel-driven.
For instance, Bernard’s ankle will get healthier as the year progresses — especially with the bye week just a couple of games away. They have already committed to Matt Milano returning at some point this season, and he’ll replace Williams in the lineup. And to a lesser extent, they’re likely to get defensive linemen DeWayne Carter and Smoot at some point. The Bills should also use one of their recently vacated roster spots to put Ankou on the 53-man roster moving forward, as he’s playing like their third-best defensive tackle and is a clear upgrade from rookie Zion Logue.
The thing with defending the run, and the Bills have experienced it before under head coach Sean McDermott and general manager Brandon Beane, is sometimes when a small snowball starts rolling down a hill, it turns into a boulder too difficult to slow down in a game. The Bills need a big response against the Colts early to get closer to their overall potential on that side of the ball, especially without having to be as concerned about getting burned for a big explosive play on the perimeter. A good run-defending unit is in there, as they’ve previously shown this season, and getting off blocks along with “gap integrity” will likely be a heavy emphasis all week at practice from McDermott and Babich.
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Quick thoughts on the top 4
QB Josh Allen (A) — The Dolphins made it a point to make Allen prove he could stay patient and not make a mistake, and on film, he was even better than he looked in the game. The Dolphins didn’t blitz as often as expected, but when they did, Allen took advantage. His only errors were a couple of misfired incompletions. The franchise quarterback is atop the season-long grades, and for good reason.
RT Spencer Brown (A-minus) — Brown was a dominant force in his one-on-one matchup as both a pass blocker and run blocker. He was left on an island to block quite a bit and didn’t yield a single pressure the entire game. It’s a continuation of a strong season that has him as the highest-graded offensive lineman through nine weeks.
RB Ray Davis (A-minus) — It’s pretty difficult to garner close to an ‘A’ grade on only nine snaps, but he was electric and maximized all his touches. Any other offensive skill player on the roster may have struggled to turn that dump-off pass into a touchdown the way Davis did, which is probably a good enough reason to consider giving him more time on the field moving forward.
WR Khalil Shakir (A-minus) — In a game where the Dolphins wanted to force everything underneath, Shakir’s yards after catch on low depth of target receptions were immeasurable to their victory. He continues to be one of the best players on the team this season.
2024 Bills All-22 grades vs. Dolphins (Week 9)
Rank | Player | Pos. | Grade | Play Count | Snap % |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
QB |
A |
66 |
100.00% |
|
2 |
RT |
A- |
66 |
100.00% |
|
3 |
RB |
A- |
9 |
13.64% |
|
4 |
WR |
A- |
35 |
53.03% |
|
5 |
WR |
A- |
45 |
68.18% |
|
6 |
DE |
B+ |
45 |
73.77% |
|
7 |
LG |
B+ |
66 |
100.00% |
|
8 |
LT |
B+ |
66 |
100.00% |
|
9 |
C |
B+ |
66 |
100.00% |
|
10 |
DT |
B+ |
21 |
34.43% |
|
11 |
DT |
B |
44 |
72.13% |
|
12 |
RB |
B |
36 |
54.55% |
|
13 |
TE |
B |
52 |
78.79% |
|
14 |
RB |
B- |
19 |
28.79% |
|
15 |
RG |
B- |
66 |
100.00% |
|
16 |
TE |
B- |
43 |
65.15% |
|
17 |
DE |
B- |
24 |
39.34% |
|
18 |
NCB |
B- |
58 |
95.08% |
|
19 |
WR |
C+ |
52 |
78.79% |
|
20 |
DT |
C+ |
36 |
59.02% |
|
21 |
LB |
C+ |
53 |
86.89% |
|
22 |
SS |
C+ |
61 |
100.00% |
|
23 |
CB |
C+ |
61 |
100.00% |
|
24 |
WR |
C+ |
17 |
25.76% |
|
25 |
LB |
C |
61 |
100.00% |
|
26 |
FS |
C |
61 |
100.00% |
|
27 |
DE |
C |
22 |
36.07% |
|
28 |
CB |
C |
58 |
95.08% |
|
29 |
DE |
C |
21 |
34.43% |
|
30 |
DT |
C |
16 |
26.23% |
Players with fewer than 15 snaps:
NCB Cam Lewis (12), OL Alec Anderson (11), DE Casey Toohill (11), TE Quintin Morris (8), WR Jalen Virgil (3), CB Ja’Marcus Ingram (3), DE Javon Solomon (2), S Cole Bishop (1), QB Mitchell Trubisky (0), OL Ryan Van Demark (0), Sedrick Van Pran-Granger (0), LB Baylon Spector (0), LB Joe Andreessen (0), LB Edefuan Ulofoshio (0), CB Brandon Codrington (0)
2024 Bills All-22 season grades, Week 9
Rank | Pos. | Player | GPA | 2024 Snaps | Last Week |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 |
QB |
3.46 |
529 |
3 |
|
2 |
DE |
3.39 |
420 |
1 |
|
3 |
WR |
3.38 |
287 |
4 |
|
4 |
RB |
3.35 |
267 |
2 |
|
5 |
CB |
3.29 |
503 |
6 |
|
6 |
RT |
3.27 |
554 |
9 |
|
7 |
LT |
3.26 |
527 |
7 |
|
8 |
LG |
3.21 |
542 |
10 |
|
9 |
NCB |
3.15 |
244 |
5 |
|
10 |
DT |
3.09 |
304 |
11 |
|
11 |
TE |
3.07 |
368 |
12 |
|
12 |
C |
3.05 |
522 |
16 |
|
13 |
DT |
3.00 |
325 |
13 |
|
14 |
LB |
3.00 |
321 |
8 |
|
15 |
RG |
2.97 |
550 |
15 |
|
16 |
CB |
2.95 |
551 |
14 |
|
17 |
RB |
2.91 |
142 |
17 |
|
18 |
WR |
2.82 |
387 |
18 |
|
19 |
DE |
2.74 |
213 |
19 |
|
20 |
DE |
2.74 |
332 |
20 |
|
21 |
WR |
2.71 |
340 |
22 |
|
22 |
DE |
2.61 |
146 |
21 |
|
23 |
TE |
2.57 |
310 |
23 |
|
24 |
WR |
2.49 |
141 |
25 |
|
25 |
DT |
2.48 |
161 |
24 |
|
26 |
DT |
2.46 |
183 |
27 |
|
27 |
LB |
2.45 |
445 |
26 |
|
28 |
S |
2.42 |
449 |
28 |
|
29 |
NCB |
2.21 |
349 |
29 |
|
30 |
WR |
2.16 |
146 |
30 |
|
31 |
LB |
2.09 |
246 |
32 |
|
32 |
S |
1.96 |
571 |
33 |
**Minimum 135 snaps
***Cole Bishop removed from season grades for falling below minimum threshold
How the standards work
When the All-22 film becomes available, we’ll go through and watch every player on every play as many times as necessary to assess letter grades. It is a subjective analysis, and it’s important to note we do not know the play calls and full responsibilities. The grades stem from technique, effort and presumed liability.
The study accounts only for players who take a snap on offense or defense. Players with fewer than 15 snaps — unless they significantly impact the game — will not factor into weekly rankings. The grades range from an ‘A’ (a perfect 4.00 GPA) to ‘F’ (0.00 GPA). There is no such thing as an ‘A+’ in this grading system. Season-long grades will be tallied and documented, with a single game’s grade weighted based on how much the player was on the field in a given week.
(Top photo: Timothy T Ludwig / Getty Images)