Today marks exactly one month since the NHL season started in Prague with games between the New Jersey Devils and Buffalo Sabres.
Since then, the league’s 32 teams have played 189 games, or 14.4 percent of a full season, and there have been some pretty wacky things happening.
As ancient philosopher George Costanza once said, “Up was down. Black was white. Day was…” Well, you get the idea.
But hockey’s a funny sport, and this can be a weird league. Fringe players can go on unbelievable scoring runs. Weak teams can pile up wins over a short period, and powerhouses can look like minnows over a stretch of a month or two.
So to try and make sense of some of the unusual things that have happened so far, I’m going to break down some of the biggest outliers and weigh in on whether there’s sustaining power to these trends. Let’s dig in.
How teams are on pace to change
Let’s start with the three teams at the top. The Winnipeg Jets finished with the fourth-best record in the NHL last season with 110 points and didn’t dramatically change their roster. They have perhaps the best goaltender in the world in Connor Hellebuyck and a lot of offensive firepower, so while they’re on an 11-1-0 heater and a 150-point pace, I feel pretty comfortable saying they’re for real.
But what about the two surprise teams leading the way in this chart?
Let’s start with Minnesota. The Wild have the second-best record in the NHL for many reasons, with strong play from goaltender Filip Gustavsson right up there.
Minnesota finished 24th in team save percentage a year ago with .893; through 11 games, it’s way up to third (.914).
That jump alone would have been enough to improve the Wild’s goals against last season by more than 35, which quite likely would have made them a playoff team. Having Gustavsson healthy and playing a larger share of the games should help compared to a year ago.
But it’s not just improved goaltending that has allowed Minnesota to climb from 20th to tied for third in goals against. After Sunday’s big win over the Toronto Maple Leafs, the Wild are ranked second in expected goals against, meaning the quality of scoring chances they’ve allowed is better than almost every other team so far.
All of that points to the Wild being able to maintain their spot as one of the stingiest teams in the league.
Where we see some unsustainability creeping in is in their offensive game. The Wild have jumped from 21st in goals per game to eighth this season, driven in part by an incredible start from Kirill Kaprizov (21 points in 11 games after a rare quiet night against Toronto).
Overall, Minnesota isn’t generating a much higher level of scoring chances compared to a year ago. But its shooting percentage is more than 13 percent, one of the top marks in the league and definitely not something that is sustainable over an 82-game season.
That said, there are a lot of positive indicators for the Wild, who are tracking to be one of the biggest positive success stories leaguewide if they continue to get better goaltending and a Hart-level performance from Kaprizov. Even if they fall back to the pack a bit in goal production, they’re such a strong defensive team — thanks in part to what looks like another step forward for Brock Faber, who sits fifth in the NHL in ice time at 25:28 a night — that it won’t sink their season.
As for the Capitals, they’re off to a similarly terrific start after taking a lot of criticism last year for sneaking into the playoffs with some ugly underlying numbers.
What’s different about Washington? The Capitals have greatly improved their analytical profile thanks to some smart offseason additions (Jakob Chychrun and Pierre-Luc Dubois) and unexpected performances from prospects already in their system (Connor McMichael and Aliaksei Protas). Washington, for example, is third in the NHL in expected goals share at even strength right now, behind only the Carolina Hurricanes (who they narrowly lost to on Sunday) and New York Rangers.
They were 24th in that metric a year ago, which means they’ve made a league-best jump in their ability to control play and outchance their opponents.
Like the Wild, the Capitals’ shooting percentage is unsustainable, but even if it comes down, they have plenty of room to fall back from 4.18 goals per game and still remain a top-10 offensive team in the league.
Goaltender Charlie Lindgren, meanwhile, has started slower than a year ago, and big free-agent defenseman signing Matt Roy has played just one game due to injury. So there’s still room for improvement from that perspective.
So, we’re obviously very early in the season, but based on what we’ve seen, the Wild and Capitals appear largely for real, and two of the biggest surprises overall. And coaches John Hynes and Spencer Carbery have their names on the Jack Adams candidates list already.
Honorable mentions: Anaheim, Calgary and Columbus
Are the Bruins, Avs and Preds bad now?
Let’s go through these one by one …
Boston: The Bruins needed their big weekend. Two games, two wins and two shutouts will help. Before beating the Philadelphia Flyers and Seattle Kraken, the Bruins certainly appeared to be in big trouble.
Even with the wins, it’s not pretty. Long one of the NHL’s analytic darlings, they currently sit 20th in expected goals share, 23rd in puck possession and 20th in shot share in all situations.
They haven’t been scoring. They weren’t getting great goaltending until the shutouts this weekend. Both of their special teams are bad (24th and 17th). And perhaps most troublingly, big offseason addition Elias Lindholm has really struggled with a 44 percent expected goals share and 50-point scoring pace for his seven-year, $7.75-million-a-season UFA contract.
They’ve looked like David Pastrňák and a bunch of guys on too many nights right now.
Maybe this weekend is a sign. Maybe Jeremy Swayman can turn things around and carry them to a respectable record the rest of the way, but the early returns have been awful. And it’ll take more than two wins over mediocre opponents to shake that feeling.
Jeremy Swayman and the Bruins have struggled in the first month of the season. (James Guillory / Imagn Images)
Colorado: The Avs’ issues with injuries have been well-publicized. At one point last week, they were missing six of their top 10 forwards and had to resort to playing rookies Ivan Ivan and Nikolai Kovalenko in the top six and on the power play.
The good news is they still have Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar, and they’re carrying a roster that is missing more than $30 million in talent some nights.
Their biggest problem right now (beyond the infirmary) is that No. 1 netminder Alexandar Georgiev is basically unplayable with an .820 save percentage and the league’s worst goals saved above expectations mark.
Once they get healthy — with some big names like Valeri Nichushkin, Artturi Lehkonen and Jonathan Drouin all getting close — they should be OK. So don’t write them off yet.
Nashville: The Predators’ big, splashy offseason has not worked out very well so far.
But you can make a decent case they have just been incredibly unlucky. They’re dead last in five-on-five shooting percentage (4.6 percent) and PDO, which aren’t going to be that low for much longer.
If there’s a concern for the Predators, it’s that even if they do regress to where they should be, they look like a very average team that will be on the playoff bubble even in a better-case scenario. They are top-heavy, don’t have a lot of depth, and invested a lot in aging scorers (Jonathan Marchessault and Steven Stamkos) from whom they might be asking for too much as they decline.
And considering what they’re paying Juuse Saros, they need him to be a lot more than what he’s given them of late.
Honorable mentions: Edmonton (although after Sunday’s win, they’ve now won four of five!)
Those are some of the key team trends to watch.
Let’s drill down one level further to some of the surprising players having unusual starts and see if they have sustaining power.
Skaters off to amazing starts
Neal Pionk, Winnipeg: We’re going to go out on a limb and predict that Pionk is not going to finish the season with 89 points. Pionk, 29, is in his eighth season and has never really gotten a ton of attention leaguewide; he’s always kind of been just a dependable No. 3 defenseman in a small market. He has 13 points through 12 games, but his career average is closer to 35 a season. The Jets have a ridiculous 19 percent shooting percentage when he’s been on the ice, but, hey, ride the hockey gods’ lightning while you can.
Mark Stone, Vegas: What a welcome name to see atop the NHL scoring leaders early on this year. Stone, 32, has battled a pile of injuries for years. In fact, he hasn’t played more than 56 games in a season since way back in 2019-20. There were a lot of concerns about how Vegas was going to produce offensively after losing Marchessault and Chandler Stephenson in free agency, but Stone has more than picked up the slack, piling up 20 points through 12 games to help the Golden Knights climb to second in the NHL in goals per game early on. He’s not going to pile up more than an assist per game, obviously, but his shooting percentage is close to normal-ish, and, if healthy, it’s certainly plausible he can put up big numbers alongside Jack Eichel.
Alex Laferriere, Los Angeles: Eight goals in 12 games is a nice little heater for the 23-year-old in his second season. His shooting percentage is nearly 30 percent, but Laferriere is also getting bigger minutes, is on PP1, and is playing with better players than he was a year ago. He had big goal totals with Harvard two years ago in college, so there’s talent there, and he could surprise by hitting the 25-goal mark. Not bad for a third-round pick.
Honorable mentions: Connor McMichael, Casey Mittelstadt, Pavel Dorofeyev, Yegor Chinakhov
Goalies off to amazing starts
Lukáš Dostál, Anaheim: The 24-year-old Czech has had potential building for a bit now. That he’s leading the NHL in goals saved above expected, however, is a surprise, especially behind the Ducks’ makeshift defense. Dostál absolutely dominated the Finnish league as a youngster and falls in a long line of very good goalies picked by Anaheim over the years. Whether this season is his breakout or not is tough to predict but don’t be surprised by an upward trajectory, given his skill set and pedigree. With John Gibson hurt, this has been his time to shine.
Kevin Lankinen, Vancouver: Where would the Canucks be without him right now? Lankinen landed in Vancouver late and on a bargain-basement $875,000 contract, but he’s been excellent with a 5-0-2 record and .919 save percentage. The undrafted Finn has shown flashes in a backup role in Nashville before, and it certainly helps that the Canucks are playing some nice defensive hockey in front of him (sixth in the NHL in expected goals against at even strength). Obviously they’re looking forward to getting Thatcher Demko back at some point, but Lankinen just might be one of this season’s breakout players in goal — and one of the NHL’s top bargains in doing so.
Honorable mentions: Joel Blomqvist, Dan Vladar
Skaters off to tough starts
Zach Hyman, Edmonton: From a 54-goal season last year to … just two points in his first 11 games? Two points — and the winning goal — on Sunday were nice, but no star has slumped more so far than Hyman, who just isn’t getting as many chances at the net as he did a year ago. He obviously wasn’t going to shoot 3 percent for the whole season, but the more troubling thing is he’s producing close to one fewer shot per game, in part because he’s missing the net more and has had a lot more opportunities blocked. It’s possible he falls back into the 30-goal range at this point, especially with Connor McDavid missing time.
Elias Pettersson, Vancouver: One goal and only four points in 10 games for the $11.6 million man is tough. Tougher is some of the highlight packs that have been circulating on social media showing his mistakes and brain farts blown up in a bigger way. The Canucks’ shooting percentage with Pettersson on the ice is way down, so perhaps there’s some bad luck at play here, but his shot rate is down almost 50 percent, his scoring chance numbers are some of the lowest of his career, and giveaways have skyrocketed. The most concerning thing about Pettersson’s funk is it’s a continuation of what happened in the second half of last year and into the playoffs, when he produced just 23 points over his final 40 games. There’s real reason for concern here.
Steven Stamkos, Nashville: Unlike the two stars above, Stamkos is getting his usual looks at the net and putting three pucks on goal a game, right in line with his recent averages. But he has been a 17 percent shooter for 15 years, and right now, he’s converting at just 6 percent. (And Nashville collectively is shooting only 1 percent with him on the ice at five-on-five, which isn’t going to continue.) Stamkos actually has the highest individual expected goals per minute of his career right now, so he should start finding the back of the net more regularly soon.
Honorable mentions: Charlie McAvoy, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, Quinton Byfield, Devon Toews
Goalies off to tough starts
Jeremy Swayman, Boston: I already mentioned him above, but I think it’s worth a bit more context. Missing training camp and preseason is no joke, especially for a goalie; it can really set players back, and that appears to be the case for Swayman. He didn’t ink his eight-year, $8.25-million-a-season deal until Oct. 6, two days before the regular season, and his numbers are basically down across the board, including an ugly .884 save percentage before Sunday’s shutout. Swayman was one of the most reliable goalies in the NHL his first three seasons in a tandem role, so this was probably a blip, but the Bruins are hemorrhaging chances against and he doesn’t have a reliable partner in the crease to work with for the first time. We’ll see if this weekend is something they can build on.
Stuart Skinner, Edmonton: Is it the short offseason, maybe? Skinner was phenomenal in the Oilers’ run to the Stanley Cup Final last spring, but between the regular season and playoffs, he logged a grueling 82 appearances in only his second season an as NHL starter. Skinner’s goals saved above expected numbers aren’t far below league average this season, so this isn’t all on him as the Oilers’ makeshift blue line is definitely more porous than it was a year ago (they’ve fallen from eighth down to 19th in expected goals against at even strength so far). It may make sense to go with more of a tandem usage here for a bit until both goalies find their way a bit more. We’ll see how Calvin Pickard fares against the New Jersey Devils on Monday.
Honorable mentions: Alexandar Georgiev, Juuse Saros, Adin Hill, Connor Ingram
(Illustration: Dan Goldfarb / The Athletic. Photos: Derek Cain, Mitchell Leff / Getty Images, Matt Slocum / Associated Press)
