There are a lot of things you’re allowed to do in the NFL. Saying you’re tired is apparently not one of them.
Indianapolis Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson may have saved general manager Chris Ballard’s job when he tapped out for a play Sunday after bouncing off a couple of 270-pound defensive linemen and running to get back to the line of scrimmage. The Colts have been underachieving for years while Ballard has gotten a pass, but he was going to have to keep playing his 2023 first-round pick to prove that he hadn’t taken the wrong guy.
But then, in a league where mental health is championed and running backs take plays off all the time, Richardson — a really big running back who can throw deep — said he needed a breather. And he gave the Colts the out they needed to bench him and make a switch, because 39-year-old Joe Flacco was much better in his two starts this year when Richardson was injured.
Flacco was a revelation for the Cleveland Browns last season, and they didn’t bring him back because they had to play Deshaun Watson even though Flacco is better. It’s been quite a third act for Flacco, who went from always losing the “elite” debates during 11 years with the Baltimore Ravens to a journeyman stint with the Denver Broncos and New York Jets to being one of the most beloved quarterbacks the last two years.
In this age of quarterbacks running around and often not hitting their target, people can appreciate the old guy being patient in the pocket and letting it rip.
Speaking of which, this old guy finally had a good week. We would have gone 5-0 on our best bets if Daniel Jones was just bad and not terrible, but the New York Giants didn’t cover against the Pittsburgh Steelers by a missed two-point conversion. And our 8-8 overall record could have easily been 12-4 if not for Hail Marys, backdoor covers and a George Costanza opposite play on the Tennessee Titans.
Let’s see if Flacco can lead us to two non-losing weeks in a row.
Last week’s record: 8-8 against the spread, 4-1 on best bets.
Season record: 42-65-2 against the spread, 13-20-2 on best bets.
All odds are from BetMGM and are locked when the pick was made. Click here for live odds.
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NFL Power Rankings Week 9: Bills up, Cowboys down, plus Something Scary for every team
Everyone has buried the Jets, and rightfully so. They clearly screwed up by firing coach Robert Saleh, because now the defense is also bad since he left. And to watch new receiver Davante Adams the last two weeks, you can’t tell if he is still trying to catch passes from Gardner Minshew II and Aidan O’Connell or his best buddy Aaron Rodgers. (Adams, by the way, ranks 59th among wide receivers in maximum average route speed at 12.83 miles per hour and 50th with a 7.5 percent drop rate.) I usually prefer to go against the public, but I can’t take the Jets. The Texans defense is fast and will hunt — Houston is ranked third with 27 sacks — and Rodgers was slow before he got banged up. The Texans will lean on RB Joe Mixon with WRs Nico Collins and Stefon Diggs out, and that should be good enough.
The pick: Texans
The Falcons are now 4-2 in six games this season that have been decided by one possession (Kirk Cousins is 18-6 in such games since 2022). They might be 6-0 if the Falcons had drafted the best defensive player in the draft at No. 8 instead of a backup quarterback. Oh well. This point spread does seem a little low considering the dumpster fire that that is the Cowboys, but apparently people are fired up about the return of pass rusher Micah Parsons. Or … they realize that the Falcons count nine alligators when rushing the QB. Grady Jarrett ranks 94th among 95 players with only a 3.0 percent pressure rate. Dak Prescott will have plenty of time to find CeeDee Lamb and Jake Ferguson and turn around a season that has him with career lows through eight weeks in passer rating (84.5) and total QB EPA (-2.5). The Falcons also might exhale a little bit coming off a big win over the Buccaneers for control of the NFC South.
The pick: Cowboys
We finally jumped on the Bo Nix bandwagon and enjoyed an easy win and cover against the Panthers. Thanks for the snacks and good company and that was a fun time, but we’ll be jumping off now. I know, Baltimore’s pass defense has been bad. The Ravens have injuries at cornerback and they were just shredded by the Browns. But … Jameis Winston can throw. Nix cannot. Plus, the Ravens will get some pressure on the rookie, as Nix is taking a league-high 3.36 seconds the last four weeks to throw the football. Meanwhile, the Ravens defense will be able to deal with Nix’s running as well as that of Javonte Williams. The Broncos defense, meanwhile, has overachieved, and I don’t see it working out well against an angry Ravens team that will lean on the running of Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson, and I think the acquisition of WR Diontae Johnson is being slept on. He is always open near the first-down marker. Blowout city.
The pick: Ravens
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Tua Tagovailoa had some good moments last week in his return — his five tight-window completions were his most since Week 7 of 2021 — but not enough to beat the Cardinals at home. And now he faces a Bills defense that has been hot and kind of has his number. Buffalo has won the last four games against the Dolphins, holding Tagovailoa and company to just under 15 points per game in the last three. Josh Allen, meanwhile, should have a pretty good day against a team that is down its three top pass rushers (and ranks 30th with nine sacks). And the addition of Amari Cooper has opened things up for the other receivers, with Keon Coleman especially taking advantage of that last week in Seattle.
The pick: Bills
Derek Carr is ready to return from injury this week for the Saints. (Matthew Hinton / Imagn Images)
This is a perfect spot for Derek Carr to return because the Panthers pick five people from the stands to start in the secondary every week. Or at least that’s what it looks like. The Saints offensive line is also finally getting healthier. The Saints blew out the Panthers 47-10 in the opener and will love to see Bryce Young again. The Panthers have the fourth-worst point differential at -147 through eight weeks since the 1970 merger, and their defense is a franchise-worst in EPA per play (-0.13), EPA per drive (-0.74) and defensive points allowed per game (33.9).
The pick: Saints
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NFL trade deadline predictions: Who’s staying put and who’s moving on?
Like we said last week, the Bengals just aren’t very good. I know everybody thinks they’re a team of destiny and a run of wins is inevitable, but good teams don’t lose to the Patriots and have a record of 3-5. There certainly isn’t much margin for error, and Tee Higgins’ absence made picking the Eagles against them an easy winner. The Raiders are not the Eagles talent-wise, though they are still playing hard at 2-6. Chase Brown should have some success running the ball against the Raiders, which will make Joe Burrow’s life much easier. The Bengals defense — especially the pass rush — has been underwhelming this season, but this might be a get-well matchup, as the Raiders can’t run the ball and don’t have anyone to really worry about outside of tight end Brock Bowers. Through eight weeks, the Raiders’ offense is a franchise-worst since 2010 in EPA per drive (-0.88) and EPA per play (-0.17). It’s a must-win game for the Bengals, and the Raiders help keep hope alive for another week at least.
The pick: Bengals
Don’t look now, but Justin Herbert is back. He hasn’t thrown an interception in five starts, the longest active streak in the NFL, and has really been on fire since the Chargers’ bye week three weeks ago. He is finally healthy again and while he doesn’t have much as far as receivers, he has a kick-ass offensive line that keeps him clean. Now, he gets to face a slightly overrated Browns defense that will be without top run-stopping linebacker Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (neck) and likely without No. 1 cornerback Denzel Ward (concussion). That all said, the Chargers love to settle for field goals and aren’t really good enough to be road favorites. Their defense is stout up front, but I am still buying into Jameis Winston. (Yeah, we had them last week against the Ravens, put his picture on top of the story and everything.) His good numbers last week (0.29 EPA per dropback rate and 115.3 passer rating) were not too far off from his seven starts in New Orleans in 2021 (0.14, 102.8).
The pick: Browns
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NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year odds: Jayden Daniels will be tough to catch now
Jayden Daniels locked up Rookie of the Year honors last week, playing with sore ribs when many thought he wouldn’t and winning the game with the Hail Mary. He can probably win this week just by handing the ball off to Brian Robinson Jr., and then keeping it and running it himself as the Giants don’t stop the run well. The Commanders have improved on both sides of the ball since their Week 2, 3-point win over the Giants, while the Giants realize they are cooked at 2-6. They actually played hard and had a chance to win at Pittsburgh on Monday night, but got buried by a ton of penalty flags and by Daniel Jones’ indecisiveness and tendency to throw high when pressured. That’s a bad combination. I guess they’re waiting for the bye week in two games to bench Jones for Drew Lock.
The pick: Commanders
The Lions aren’t only the hottest team in the NFC, but also are leaving bruised bodies and egos behind in their wake. Teams are now 0-5 the week after playing Detroit (yes, they have played six games, but the Cowboys had a bye the week after) and the Titans are now coming off a 38-point loss to the Lions. That’s good news for the Patriots, who don’t know yet if rookie QB Drake Maye will be back from a concussion. The Titans are solid against the run, so it will be up to Maye or backup Jacoby Brissett to keep that post-Lions streak intact. We’re going to say the streak falls. Patriots coach Jared Mayo called his team soft two weeks ago, and while his players responded with the win against the Jets, their defense is still very bad. Only people who write columns and have to pick each game should venture a guess on this one, and we’re riding with Mason Rudolph and Tony Pollard.
The pick: Titans
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Kyler Murray’s resurgence, Cooper DeJean’s impact, more Week 8 thoughts: Quick Outs
Caleb Williams should have been the story last week, overcoming a rough outing to lead the Bears to a win, but his defensive coaches let him down. After being harassed by blitzes a season-high 42 percent of the time against the Commanders (he was 4 of 10 for 63 yards and a -0.13 EPA per dropback), Williams can have an umbrella drink and relax against the Cardinals defense. Plus, receivers DJ Moore (3.79 yards) and Rome Odunze (3.66) rank fourth and eighth (among 52 wide receivers), respectively, in the past four weeks in average separation from a defender as the ball arrives. The Cardinals have the third-worst pressure rate in the league and also can’t stop the run. The problem with picking Cardinals games is you have no idea what to expect from Kyler Murray. Usually, it’s game to game, but last week against the Dolphins it was quarter to quarter as Murray overcame a bad start. The Bears have a strong pass rush but are not so tough against the run. We are leaning Bears, but this is our Costanza pick of the week.
The pick: Cardinals
The Jaguars showed some heart last week (yeah, surprised us too) after losing receivers Brian Thomas Jr., Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis to injuries. There is a chance that Thomas — who ranks fifth in EPA per reception rate (1.4) and 12th in EPA per target (0.48) — and Davis play on Sunday. That would be nice, as I am itching to go against the Eagles, who are 3-0 and much improved since their bye week. I don’t trust coach Nick Sirianni in what should be a flat spot with a game at the Cowboys on deck. Of course, they could be flat and still win by more than 7 if Jalen Hurts is back to his old self. He had the best single-game EPA per dropback rate of his career last week with a 0.58 mark. Monitor those Jaguars WR updates.
The pick: Jaguars
Can Jordan Love overcome another injury — this to his groin — to play this week? (Morgan Tencza / Imagn Images)
Jordan Love said Wednesday that “it’s realistic” that he and his sore groin play Sunday. I guess that’s good, although backup Malik Willis is 3-0. The Lions are 2-0 without injured pass rusher Aidan Hutchinson but did allow the Vikings 29 points before playing the forward-pass-challenged Titans last week. I think they miss him and the Packers receivers have time to pick apart a young Lions secondary. That all might not matter because the Lions have put up 42, 47, 31 and 52 points the last four games. Jared Goff has compiled the highest passer rating in a four-game span in a single season in NFL history with a 155.0 rating. To which we say all those games were indoors. A-ha!
The pick: Packers
The Rams went from being sellers at the trade deadline to dreaming big after beating the Vikings. That’s how good the chemistry is between Matthew Stafford and receivers Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp, who both returned for that game. The Seahawks rank 31st in opposing passer rating in Weeks 4 through 8 at 115.2, after being second in the league the first three weeks at 67.0. That’s what happens when you’re not going against Bo Nix, Jacoby Brissett and Skylar Thompson. The Rams should also be able to take advantage of a leaky Seahawks run defense. Seattle is hoping to get a receiver back themselves, as DK Metcalf is making progress returning from a knee injury. The Rams have some promising young pass rushers, so Geno Smith could and should lean on RB Kenneth Walker III in the short passing game. The Seahawks were embarrassed at home by the Bills, and I am also pointing the finger at their fans. One of the great home-field advantages was erased because everyone sold their tickets to the Bills mafia. For shame. Cheer loud this week. Thanks.
The pick: Seahawks
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No tapping out: Colts QB Anthony Richardson has hard lesson to learn from the bench
The Colts covered for us last week despite Richardson completing only 10 of 32 passes and are now a league-best 7-1 against the spread. We have discussed Flacco’s insertion to the starting lineup being big and so was the Vikings’ loss of left tackle Christian Darrisaw last week. Minnesota has lost two straight since people started saying Sam Darnold should be in the MVP conversation. Darnold is not great under pressure, and that should be the case Sunday. The Vikings defense has surprisingly given up at least 30 points each of the last two weeks, and Flacco is much better at dealing with blitzes than Richardson is. All the Colts have to do is lose by 5? Lock and load.
The pick: Colts
The Chiefs are not only 7-0 but also would have covered the spread in their last five games if not for a backdoor, garbage-time touchdown by Minshew Mania. No reason they shouldn’t roll here. Buccaneers QB Baker Mayfield clearly missed injured receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin last week, and he won’t be able to lean on tight end Cade Otton as much this week. That’s because Chiefs coordinator Steve Spagunolo just erased Raiders tight end Brock Bowers for the last three quarters last week so all those concepts are still fresh. And the Buccaneers won’t be able to run the ball either. Travis Kelce, meanwhile, figures to have his second big game in a row against an accommodating Buccaneers pass defense, while new teammate DeAndre Hopkins has another week to learn the playbook. Did we mention that the Chiefs made another trade, adding pass rusher Josh Uche? What, other teams’ GMs are big Taylor Swift fans?
The pick: Chiefs
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Chiefs are 7-0 but not quite perfect. Here’s how to unleash vintage Mahomes: Sando’s Pick Six
Best bets: We’re rolling with Colts and Bills for a second straight week, against the Vikings and Dolphins, respectively. The Ravens should stomp the Broncos, while the Cowboys stun the Falcons and the Commanders keep up their team of destiny thing with a win over the smallish Giants.
Upset special (spread of at least 3 points): The Eagles are due to lay an egg and Trevor Lawrence and the Jaguars (+7.5, +280) crack it and scramble it and make a money omelet.
— TruMedia research courtesy of The Athletic’s Larry Holder.
(Top photo of Joe Flacco: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
