The Winnipeg Jets are 9-1-0 and atop the NHL standings.
Connor Hellebuyck leads all goaltenders in wins. Kyle Connor is tied for second in the league in goals. What’s even more impressive? The Jets have the league’s top power play, the most points from their defencemen and five point-per-game players — including Connor, who is one point behind Mark Stone and Kirill Kaprizov for the league lead.
Winnipeg has a few obvious areas for improvement, too, but the Jets are off to a scorching hot start to their season. Here are 10 of the biggest stories to come out of those 10 games.
Power play is single biggest driver of wins
Winnipeg’s power play has scored 13 goals in its first 10 games, running at a 43.3 percent efficiency while looking dangerous from every position on the ice. Assistant coach Davis Payne deserves plaudits here, giving Winnipeg’s first and second units multiple options to attack, whether the Jets have possession at the top of the zone, below the goal line or on either flank.
Let’s consider the scale of Winnipeg’s improvement. Those 13 goals in 10 games to start the season? Winnipeg’s highest output in any 10-game stretch last season was 10 goals and they averaged five. Winnipeg’s scoring at more than twice that rate right now.
How, then? The answers are movement and options.
Take the top unit, for example, where every opponent knew the Jets’ default option last year was to get Mark Scheifele on the half wall. He’d hold it and choose between three options: Gabriel Vilardi down low, Sean Monahan in the high slot or Josh Morrissey up top. The Jets were at their best when Vilardi had the puck beside the net because he had multiple options and most of them were dangerous — goals came from Monahan in the slot, Connor across the ice or Vilardi driving the net on his own.
Now, every Jets skater has as many weapons as Vilardi did. We’ve seen Nikolaj Ehlers make passes to Scheifele that are the mirror image of the Vilardi-to-Connor play. We’ve seen Connor tee up goals by finding Scheifele through the seam. And Winnipeg’s players are moving. Ehlers is playing what Payne calls the “pop” position, meaning he gets a lot of chances from the high slot. He doesn’t just sit there and wait, though — on one play, he might be playing a Vilardi-like role on the goalie’s left, looking for Scheifele across the ice; on the very next play, Ehlers might find himself available for a high-slot one-timer. Movement on and off the puck creates decisions for PK units and space for elite scorers to find the net.
Winnipeg is getting the shots that it wants, too. Connor is shooting more than twice as often this year than last year — not because someone thought it would be a good idea for him to shoot but because he’s getting the puck in better situations. The Jets’ pace and movement help them manipulate opposing PK units so that Connor gets the puck with lanes open and opponents out of position.
Let’s take Connor’s first goal against Toronto as an example of a goal that would not have happened last season. Watch as the Jets turn Scheifele’s entry into a scoring chance for Connor in a place on the ice he’d never have gotten to one year ago.
One-for-One ☝️ ⚡️ pic.twitter.com/RogyYRtGtS
— Winnipeg Jets (@NHLJets) October 29, 2024
Would you believe that Connor’s next power-play goal will equal his total from all of last season? Or that, despite his goal scoring genius, Connor has never scored more than 11 power-play goals in a season? Even the year he scored 47 goals, Connor managed just eight on the power play. He’s on pace to obliterate that total this year and it’s because the Jets aren’t hoping he’ll blast a one-timer after minimal power-play movement. They’re getting him the puck in great contexts, with penalty killers on the move.
The second unit deserves more ink than it’s getting in this section but Cole Perfetti has three power-play goals in limited minutes. I wouldn’t expect Perfetti to keep scoring on 50 percent of his shots but his goals are worth acknowledging, too.
The PK, with a hat tip to team discipline
The Jets’ PK has given up four goals through 10 games this season and scored a short-handed goal of its own, via Connor in Calgary. I don’t want to be too quick to say that it’s mission accomplished on that front, though, because part of Winnipeg’s success has been its discipline. Winnipeg has put itself short-handed only 21 times — the fourth best number in the league — but a tough night in Detroit has dropped the Jets to the middle of the penalty killing table.
I think the high-pressure, challenge-every-uncertain-puck PK unit still has some fine-tuning to do.
Arniel and his staff are off to a hot start
The special teams improvement is a matter of coaching. The set plays are paying off, too: Think of Scheifele scoring with the goalie pulled at the end of the first period against Minnesota. There’s also the matter of Arniel’s early, aggressive goalie pull with four minutes and change against Toronto, a clear identity to each line and effective line matching, plus the Jets’ pushback against Detroit after such a miserable game against the Maple Leafs. Winnipeg’s coaching staff has its team’s pulse early.
Mark Scheifele has his sixth goal of the season! The #NHLJets cut the lead to 5-3 in the third period. pic.twitter.com/ctyDsT55sC
— Winnipeg Sports Talk (@SportsTalkWPG) October 29, 2024
I also like Arniel’s decision not to throw his top line under the bus when asked about its performance after that Toronto game.
Top line a bigger problem than sum of its parts
Connor, Scheifele and Vilardi have been outscored 9-5 at five-on-five, even with three goals to kick off Wednesday’s game in Detroit. That is a rough stat line for three players who are much better than that and whose special teams exploits have helped Winnipeg win games. No line in the NHL has played together more often than Connor, Scheifele and Vilardi have. The one that comes closest — Jack Eichel, Mark Stone and Ivan Barbashev in Vegas — has outscored its opposition 13-6.
Blah blah blah. Five-on-five goals, you say. Winnipeg is 9-1-0. What’s your point?
Bear with me here. I think there are a lot of people who watched last year’s Jets and would have done anything to give them a power play as good as they’ve had so far this year. They wanted that team to be better, so as to have a better chance to beat Colorado or whomever in the playoffs. This year, the trouble spot is in a different place. The Jets’ top line is costing Winnipeg goals — and it’s given back the advantage that those same players have helped build on the power play. Wouldn’t it be nicer if both aspects of Winnipeg’s game were strong?
Winnipeg’s top line has been outshot 79-58, getting just 42 percent of the shots while they’re on the ice. They’ve struggled to clear the zone, finding themselves on the wrong side of the puck following turnovers at the Jets line, and they’ve been beaten back into the Jets’ zone while trying to play transition defence. These problems let the air out of their obvious scoring ability.
Early in the season, I asked Scheifele about his line’s troubles getting the puck out of their zone.
“Any line that turns the puck over at their own blue line, they’re going to be in trouble,” Scheifele said. “It’s not always about making the safe play, it’s about making the right play — the play that’s ahead of you — and just executing … There’s different pucks — whether it’s a rimmed puck, whether it’s a pass on the tape, whether it’s coming out through the middle, it’s just a matter of those details.”
Winnipeg could get another dominant game from its top trio, just like the one it got in Detroit, and they’d still be outscored by a goal this season. Recent returns are splendid; the full 10-game stock watch is not.
Growing pains on second pair part of best-case scenario
Neal Pionk and Dylan Samberg have been on the ice for several goals allowed by the Jets’ first line. They also had a particularly rough night against Toronto, leading to the worst “game score” of any Jets players this season, but I’ve been writing about growing pains since before the season started.
Even if Pionk, who scored two power-play goals in Detroit and is now up to 12 points, delivers a scorching bounce-back season, there are going to be games of chaos.
Even if Samberg steps into the top-four job he’s playing for the first time in his career, there are going to be hard games along the way.
Connor’s backpressure worth noticing
Through 10 games, some of Connor’s defensive issues have made themselves known. Not every puck that gets rimmed to him on the left wing boards gets out of the zone. Scheifele tends to anticipate the next play and can be caught above his man in these moments of error. Vilardi doesn’t have the pace to compensate in those chaotic moments. We’ve harped on it hard enough, though — Connor has been spectacular in other areas of the game.
Yeah, Kyle Connor is on fire. 😮💨
He’s got a goal and two assists in the first period!
📺: @Sportsnet or stream on Sportsnet+ ➡️ pic.twitter.com/iT9Ge0c79G
— NHL (@NHL) October 31, 2024
Let’s also acknowledge that Connor is using his footspeed to make defensive plays. On occasion, he’s eaten checks to send the Jets up ice successfully, and he’s been on an incredible offensive tear. He’s also been the best player on his line at five-on-five. Unless Winnipeg is willing to make Vilardi or Perfetti a centre, then there’s only one top offensive centre on the team. If the Jets don’t want to run Ehlers-Scheifele-Vilardi, the solution would be to attempt Connor-Scheifele-Ehlers, which slows down their secondary scoring line — or to wait and hope that games like Wednesday in Detroit become the new normal after several months of struggle.
That’s why Vilardi’s emergence Wednesday night was such a big deal. Connor has been the best player on that line by some margin; he’s up to 17 points in 10 games and shows plenty of signs he’s invested in team defence — even acknowledging the line’s struggles.
Upgrade at centre a pressing item once again
Winnipeg has traded three of its last six first-round picks in search of a top-six centre, bringing Paul Stastny, Kevin Hayes and Sean Monahan onto playoff-bound teams. The Jets got one of those picks back via Jacob Trouba in the summer of 2019, and thought they had solved their second-line centre issue when Patrik Laine and Jack Roslovic were traded for PL Dubois and a third-round pick … But Dubois wanted out, Vilardi is Winnipeg’s first-line right winger and the problem persists.
Are they destined to move a first-round pick in search of a centre at this trade deadline, too? What about Ehlers, whose future is still up in the air?
At some point, the Jets are going to need to retain one of their rentals, develop their own centre or accept that Connor and Scheifele need prime Blake Wheeler to win their minutes at five-on-five. Maybe they’re just treading water until Brad Lambert arrives in earnest, but it’s too soon to put the weight of a line on Lambert’s shoulders.
Perfetti is a top-six forward
Oh, neat. After a summer spent writing about Perfetti’s offensive instincts, the number of passes he makes that lead directly to goals, and suggesting that Perfetti is a top-six forward with power-play production … he’s been exactly that.
Perfetti isn’t dominating the flow of play — and I think it’s important to note that the Perfetti-Namestnikov-Ehlers line gets sheltered a bit — but he is producing. Three goals, six assists, nine points and game-over-game improvement show a player on the cusp of a breakout season. We saw a similarly hot start last season; now it’s on Perfetti to show he can sustain it and to keep pushing through any ups and downs.
I wonder what he’ll cost on his next contract.
Stanley is still a hope play
Logan Stanley is big, mobile and a good presence in the Jets dressing room. The organization values him — and has since the Jets traded up in 2016 to draft him 18th. He’s not an overly physical defenceman for his size — my read is that he’s more of a puck mover than a bruiser at heart — but he has shown a willingness to stand up for his teammates in key moments.
I don’t think he’s a meaningful upgrade to Haydn Fleury on Winnipeg’s third pair.
There’s a best-case comparable for Stanley’s career arc in the NHL, though; his name is Jamie Oleksiak and we’ve written about him before, way back in 2021 when discussing Stanley’s ceiling as a player. Oleksiak is also 6-foot-7, he’s also a mid-first-round pick and he also struggled to make a third pairing impact for the first several seasons of his career. By 25, though, Oleksiak had shown signs of top-four capability in Pittsburgh and Dallas. Stanley is 26 now, lagging behind Oleksiak’s career arc and continues to find himself a step behind in the defensive zone.
He’s also winning his sheltered minutes despite Monday’s penalty problems, though, so let’s not act as though he’s cost Winnipeg a bunch of games.
Early cracks in the Morrissey/DeMelo foundation
Let’s just file this one here for consideration as the season goes on. Morrissey and Dylan DeMelo have a longstanding track record of success, with Morrissey crediting DeMelo in part for his surge up the scoring charts. DeMelo’s exit passes haven’t been perfect this season, though, while Morrissey has looked dominant in flashes as opposed to by way of routine.
Winnipeg is winning Morrissey/DeMelo’s minutes but they’ve been stuck in their zone for long stretches and outshot 93-61. We’ve never seen that pair get buried like that so it’s a story to watch as the season continues.
(Photo: Tim Fuller / Imagn Images)