Goaltending can be the great equalizer in hockey. And sometimes, it can be what absolutely sinks a team.
It’s early in the season, with most teams hovering around the 10-game mark. But some trends are emerging worth keeping an eye on.
Alexandar Georgiev has gotten off to a brutal start for the Colorado Avalanche, with over-aggressive mistakes that have proven costly. While Justus Annunen has been solid through four starts, he only has 24 games of NHL experience, which can be dicey for a contender to bet on.
The Avalanche generally don’t need game-breaking goaltending to excel because they’re stacked in front of the blue paint. But with mounting injuries and absences, they can’t afford to let goaltending to drag them down.
Goaltending isn’t the only problem for the Pittsburgh Penguins right now, but it is one of the biggest early storylines. Tristian Jarry has been sent down to the AHL in the second year of a five-year, $26.9 million contract. While he hasn’t been an outright disaster to open the year, he hasn’t been reliable. Alex Nedeljkovic isn’t trusty enough in an expanded role, which has opened the door for Joel Blomqvist. As much as he has impressed, especially in a 46-save outing against Edmonton on Friday, the Penguins are in a less-than-ideal position in net.
It’s too early to say if Georgiev or Jarry’s starts will lead to some goalie movement, considering how rare mid-season trades are. Maybe one of them will find their footing like Stuart Skinner did last year in Edmonton. That’s something the Oilers have to count on again after he has also stumbled out of the gate.
Connor Ingram hasn’t found last year’s magic yet, and key injuries on defense likely are only straining the Utah goalie. The New Jersey Devils, on the other hand, despite making big additions, still don’t have reliable goaltending. Between Jacob Markström and Jake Allen, they only have a combined five quality starts through 12 games.
The Philadelphia Flyers have already looked for reinforcements from within because of Ivan Fedotov and Sam Ersson’s struggles. Aleksei Kolosov was called up from Lehigh Valley and started last Saturday night.
The bad tends to be more eye-catching than the good, but there have been some bright spots in the early going as well.
Jake Oettinger has been fantastic in Dallas after a shaky season, by his standards, last year. Igor Shesterkin looks like he is worth every penny he might get in New York, picking up where he left off last spring. But one of the biggest standouts is a goalie without the support of a contender-level team in front of him.
Lukáš Dostál has been the difference in Anaheim this season, with quality starts in six of his seven appearances despite facing one of the toughest workloads in the league.
The question is how long he can withstand that workload and whether it will eventually weigh him down as the year rolls on. If Dostál proves he is ready to take over as the starter in that environment, maybe management could finally go through with a John Gibson trade. At this rate, there should be buyers.
Checking in on last year’s surprise 50-plus goal scorers
Everyone predicted Sam Reinhart and Zach Hyman finishing second and third in goal-scoring last season, right?
Can either repeat?
With seven goals in 11 games, Reinhart’s off to a strong start. But is a 52-goal pace realistic? After shooting a league-leading 24.5 percent last year, Reinhart still has a hot hand with a 23 percent rate to start. But that should regress closer to average at some point. That could slow down his pace if he doesn’t pick up his scoring chance generation below the surface.
Reinhart’s shots have added up to an expected goal value of 3.19; across an 82-game season, that shakes out to a 23.8 pace. That’s a major drop from last year’s 42. With Aleksander Barkov and Matthew Tkachuk both back in the fold, Reinhart should add more substance behind his goal-scoring.
For Hyman, the 2023-24 season almost felt like an over-correction from 2022-23 when he struggled to convert on a lot of his forehand chances. He generated a ton of quality chances in all situations that added up to an individual expected goal total of 57 — and that’s before accounting for the dangerous puck movement that often preceded those shots, thanks to Connor McDavid’s playmaking.
Shooting 18.6 percent was out of character for Hyman, but even as that comes back down to Earth, the Oilers should be left with a productive goal scorer. He just has to start breaking through this season. He is still without a goal but after a sluggish first couple of games, Hyman looks a lot more like the scoring chance generator of last season; only Auston Matthews is ahead of Hyman’s 6.8 expected goals heading into Wednesday night’s matchups. The problem now is that he doesn’t have the same playmaking to set up his shots as long as McDavid is sidelined.
While there were red flags for both Reinhart and Hyman last year, they’re both on powerhouse teams surrounded by elite playmakers. These two should keep pushing the boundaries from years past; maybe their new normal is in that 40-goal range.
Broberg and Holloway are clicking in St. Louis
The Blues made waves with two offer sheets this summer. St. Louis didn’t target the biggest restricted free agents on the market but went for mid-tier up-and-coming players on a team in a salary bind.
It was a calculated approach that seems to be paying off so far this season. Dylan Holloway’s made a positive impact on both ends of the ice at five-on-five, while Philip Broberg’s popping off on the scoresheet. Both players can grow with the Blues as the team tries to turn things around without a full-on tear-down.
Offer sheets have been few and far between over the last 10 years, and the fiascos between Carolina and Montreal with Sebastian Aho and Jesperi Kotkaniemi likely didn’t help matters. But when used correctly, they can help a team gain a competitive advantage. The Blues don’t need Holloway and Broberg to look like steals to inspire general managers to be bold — they just have to prove they’re worth the price of acquisition (and the potential fallout an offer sheet can cause).
Are the Bruins frauds?
Boston came into the year with a 69 percent chance of reaching the playoffs. That’s dropped down to 48 percent after a 4-5-1 start.
Middling five-on-five results contribute to that downtick. The Bruins have underwhelmed defensively and been lackluster offensively, both in terms of shot volume and quality. It all adds up to a 45.6 percent expected goal rate that ranked 25th in the league ahead of Wednesday’s matchups. Special teams play hasn’t done the team any favors, either.
A lot of it falls on players tapped to be difference-makers. Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm haven’t been reliable enough defensively; neither has offseason add Nikita Zadorov. Elias Lindholm hasn’t been effective enough on either end of the ice and doesn’t look in sync with David Pastrňák. And Brad Marchand’s gotten off to a slow start.
A team can’t miss out on the playoffs in October, but they can dig themselves an early hole that can bite them when it matters most. The Bruins don’t look playoff-caliber right now so the pressure is on to change that. Their path isn’t getting any easier, especially with teams like the Capitals making early noise in the East.
Chytil’s a spark on the Rangers’ third-line
With Filip Chytil, there tends to be a qualifier — if he is healthy. Injuries condensed his 2023-24 to just ten regular-season games and six playoff appearances. While the Rangers had a capable 3C in Alex Wennberg in his absence last year, that version of the third line just didn’t convert on their puck possession often enough.
That has been a stark difference with Chytil back. The center adds more pop to the Rangers’ middle six between his ability to generate scoring chances in transition and his puck-moving skill. With Will Cuylle and Kaapo Kakko on his wings, the Rangers have earned about 65 percent of expected goals and are outscoring opponents 9-0. That line has been rewarded for their efforts with more ice time than Mika Zibanejad’s in the last four games.
If Chytil can stay healthy, the Rangers’ depth could become a real advantage.
The Golden Knights’ high-octane scoring
Heading into the year, there were some legitimate questions about Vegas’ forward group. All the upgrades at center and on defense have come at the cost of their winger depth, and uncertainty around Mark Stone only compounded those potential issues.
Scoring a league-high 47 goals through 10 games is one way to quiet some of those concerns. With a top-five power play and the most potent five-on-five scoring, the Golden Knights have gotten off to one of the hottest starts in the league.
Vegas is converting on a league-high 14.6 percent of its chances at five-on-five, which has helped them score almost 14 goals above expectation. That’s fueled a rise up the standings in October but isn’t a recipe for long-term success.
The Golden Knights should be able to pad their numbers more against upcoming opponents with issues in net, like Utah and Edmonton. But if Vegas wants to stay at the top long-term, they’ll need more oomph behind their finishing. Their expected goal generation has trended up over their last couple of games; now they have to sustain it.
Karlsson’s disastrous start
Goaltending is a problem in Pittsburgh, but it’s not all that’s holding them back. The Penguins are one of the worst defensive teams in the league at five-on-five.
Erik Karlsson has never been an elite shutdown defenseman; his strengths have always come from his ability to drive play from the back end. But this year, the Penguins are giving up so much in his minutes that it’s dragging everything down. The highs, like his performance against Detroit and Montreal, stand out. But the lows, like his play against New York, Buffalo and most recently Vancouver, have been an outright disaster.
In 17:16 of five-on-five action against the Canucks, the Penguins created little and gave up a ton with Karlsson on the ice. Vancouver dominated those minutes with a 78 percent expected goal rate. Mistakes and misplays cost the Penguins, who were outscored 3-1 with one of their top defensemen on the ice.
These defensive breakdowns have become the norm in Pittsburgh this season no matter who he is paired with, whether it’s his mainstay partner from last year, Marcus Pettersson, or Matt Grzelyck. While there are a lot of defensive issues outside of Karlsson’s minutes, his are noteworthy because he tends to share the ice with the Penguins’ best forwards. The Penguins’ top six can’t play to their strengths because they’re spending so much time in their own zone.
Hagel and Cirelli are shutting down top competition
With the Jake Guentzel signing, the Lightning have loaded up their top line. As a result, Brandon Hagel’s shifted into a mainstay second-line role with Anthony Cirelli to open the year, and the two are thriving together.
The Lightning have rocked a 66.4 percent expected goal rate with Hagel and Cirelli on the ice at five-on-five and outscored opponents 7-3. It’s an encouraging start for a team that needs more complementary scoring below their top line. It’s even more impressive considering their hefty workload. Cirelli and Hagel are matched up against their opponents’ top offensive threats, and they’re containing them and driving play through the first month of the season.
Rotating right wingers hasn’t slowed this combination down, either. Nick Paul excelled there to open the season, but shifting him to the third line has allowed for more lineup balance. Connor Geekie has been a fit with Cirelli and Hagel to round out Tampa Bay’s top six.
Stars of the month
The Wild’s superstar has come into the season hot, which is exactly what this team needs to balance out their defensive style. Minnesota stumbled through the early goings of last year, and a big reason was that Kaprizov didn’t quite look like Kaprizov. With seven multipoint games to start the season, he is bringing the electrifying style this roster desperately needs.
The Blue Jackets’ top line of Yegor Chinakhov, Kirill Marchenko and Monahan is thriving to start the season. With five goals and nine points in eight games, the center is scoring at a career-high rate. And Columbus is dominating in his five-on-five minutes with 65 percent of the expected goal share and a 10-5 edge in scoring.
Lukáš Dostál
The third star is always the hardest. Quinn Hughes is shining in Vancouver, while Marchenko is crushing it in Columbus. Stone keeps lighting up the scoresheet, Reinhart has helped power the Panthers while shorthanded and Oettinger has been excellent in Dallas.
But this month, the honors have to go to Dostál, who leads the league with 11.9 goals saved above expected. The Ducks have gone 4-2-1 in his seven starts, winning nine of a potential 14 points — and much of that is thanks to their goaltender, who continues to put up quality start after quality start despite his team bleeding scoring chances.
Data collected prior to Wednesday’s matchups via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, AllThreeZones and NaturalStatTrick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Lukas Dostal: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
