Penn State’s last win against Ohio State could fairly be described as one of the most memorable victories in school history, a comeback capped by a blocked field goal returned for a touchdown in Happy Valley that marked a return to national relevance for the program.
The Nittany Lions have not beaten the Buckeyes in seven tries since that 2016 meeting. Most of the games have been competitive; the first two Ohio State victories in the streak required fourth-quarter rallies.
The gap between the two seems to have grown, but not so much so that Penn State isn’t consistently a threat to Ohio State. It simply has not been able to close the deal.
This year’s matchup in State College is the first since the 2017 meeting in which the third-ranked Nittany Lions (7-0) sit higher in the AP Top 25 than the fourth-ranked Buckeyes (6-1).
Ohio State is still favored by 3 1/2, according to BetMGM. But with a loss to Oregon and a tighter-than-expected victory against Nebraska in their last two games, the Buckeyes look vulnerable.
The Athletic spoke to 14 coaches who have faced Penn State or Ohio State, granting them anonymity in exchange for candid insight into the fourth top-five matchup of the college football season.
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The Coach K effect
Penn State coach James Franklin hired offensive coordinator Andy Kotelnicki away from Kansas, essentially, for this game. The Nittany Lions went 10-2 in the 2023 regular season, but against Ohio State and Michigan, they generated a total of 27 points and 478 yards.
The word that comes up most when talking to coaches who have prepared for and played Penn State’s new offense is “creative.”
“They do more on offense with moving the pieces now,” one head coach said. “Andy does a really good job of keeping you off-kilter of what they’re doing schematically. He’s really good at changing the presentation of it while it being the same type of scheme.”
Tight end Tyler Warren is the focal point of the offense. Penn State lines up Warren all over the field, including at quarterback in short-yardage situations. In an overtime victory against USC, Warren had 17 catches for 224 yards. That’s more passing yards than the Nittany Lions had as a team in eight games in 2023.
“(Kotelnicki is) finding unique and different ways to get the ball to Tyler Warren every single week,” another head coach said. “He’s an elite tight end. And then he is finding different ways to use the two quarterbacks, and within that, he’s doing a lot of unbalanced lines, motion, shifts, just unique things that either require a mass check on defense or you’re getting into some unfavorable matchups.”
DOUBLE PASS AND WHAT A CATCH! pic.twitter.com/DSOQOIa14t
— CBS Sports (@CBSSports) October 12, 2024
Nick Singleton and Kaytron Allen make for one of the better running back combinations in the country. Singleton, in particular, is another versatile piece for Kotelnicki to move around the formation.
One Big Ten assistant summed it up best: “They give you enough s— to work on.”
Though another Big Ten assistant said it might be a bit much: “I think Penn State tries to do too much gimmicky stuff. Too much motion and shift. It’s like they do too much sometimes to the point that maybe he doesn’t realize what he should get back to.”
Penn State’s main goal this season was to become more explosive offensively. The Nittany Lions had just 19 plays of 30 or more yards in 13 games last season, 113th in the Football Bowl Subdivision. This season they have 13 in seven games — better, but still 93rd nationally.
Once again, the issue seems to be at wide receiver. Warren has 47 catches, and no other Penn State receiver has more than Harrison Wallace III’s 22.
“If they had two NFL perimeter guys, they wouldn’t get stopped,” a third head coach said. “Are they good players? Yes. Elite players? No.”
GO DEEPER
Tyler Warren’s exploits are nothing new to those who watched him dominate in high school
Penn State’s QB question
Penn State starting quarterback Drew Allar missed the second half of last week’s game against Wisconsin because of what appeared to be a left knee injury, and Beau Pribula played the entire second half, finishing 11 for 13 for 98 yards through the air and running for 28 yards on six carries.
Franklin has said he thought Allar could see some practice time this week but would not commit to whether the junior would be able to play.
Statistically, Allar has improved from last year, with a 71.3 percent completion rate (up from 59.9 percent in 2023) and 10 yards per attempt (up from 6.8). Assessments of his current form range from underrated to underwhelming.
“I don’t know how accurate Allar is. I thought he was just OK,” a Big Ten assistant said.
Pribula reminds coaches of Trace McSorley, the last Penn State quarterback to beat the Buckeyes. How the offense would function with only Pribula playing for 60 minutes is hard to predict. He was mostly limited to short throws against Wisconsin, which doesn’t have nearly the defensive personnel of Ohio State.
“He throws the ball with good accuracy and can work the intermediate part of the field,” said one Big Ten defensive backs coach. “He also can throw the ball on the run outside of the pocket. He is a very good runner, and I think he does a great job reading defenders in the option run game.”
Pribula finds Dinkins 👏@PennStateFball extends their lead.#B1GFootball on NBC 📺 pic.twitter.com/hptGPiqHhP
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 27, 2024
GO DEEPER
Who’s to blame for college football’s impending conference tiebreaker nightmare?
Ohio State’s loaded defense
There is not a spot on the field where the Ohio State defense doesn’t have talent, and Jim Knowles’ unit plays with great effort.
“Just the motor those guys play with, the way they run to the ball, how they play every snap,” a Big Ten running backs coach said. “I mean, the violence.”
It starts up front with edges Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau and tackles Tyleik Williams and Ty Hamilton, who could all turn out to be top-100 picks in the 2025 NFL Draft. Those four have 11.5 of Ohio State’s 20 sacks.
Expectations for the group and the defense as a whole were sky-high coming into the season, so there’s a perception that unless they are racking up five sacks per game, they are underachieving. But coaches who have faced the Buckeyes say success against them requires a commitment to getting the ball out quickly and figuring out a way to double-team Williams and Hamilton in the running game.
Still, as good as all those players are, none is a singular game-changer like some of Ohio State’s recent edge rushers.
“They’re not Chase Young. They’re not the Bosa brothers. They’re really, really, really good players, just different in that aspect. They rush with effort. They’ve got long arms … but they’re not as twitchy as what they’ve seen in the past,” a Big Ten quarterbacks coach said.
While Ohio State’s offensive line injuries are a huge storyline going into Saturday, Penn State could also be without right tackle Anthony Donkoh, who one head coach believes could be a future first-round pick.
Reviews were mixed on Penn State’s offensive line.
“I didn’t feel like their O-line moved people, which was surprising,” a Big Ten defensive coordinator said. “We’ve played some good offensive lines this year that were able to lean on us and just fall for three yards. Penn State didn’t do that. They didn’t knock us off the ball.”
Ohio State doesn’t run a lot of twists and stunts up front, which makes it less likely for offensive linemen to blow assignments. The upside for Ohio State is that it’s less likely to have players out of position. Across the defense, the Buckeyes tend to be sound and limit long plays. They have permitted only nine gains of at least 30 yards this season, and almost half of them came against Oregon.
Those who have faced the Buckeyes say Knowles is excellent at identifying an offense’s formation and quickly getting a call in to match it. Part of that is keeping things fairly simple for his players, while not being predictable.
In fact, the quarterbacks coach said part of the chess match with Knowles and the Buckeyes involves trying to use the fact that the players will be well-prepared against them, by disguising formations and running plays from unfamiliar looks.
“Let’s show them (a formation) that they feel like they’re going to recognize, they can be aggressive on, and it’s not that,” the coach said.
The Ohio State secondary likes to play aggressive in coverage and run support, with All-America safety and Alabama transfer Caleb Downs setting the tone. The quarterbacks coach said Downs is susceptible in coverage, if you can get him there, but otherwise he is a terror.
“He’s super athletic,” a Big Ten receivers coach said. “He’s very involved in the run game. When you look at their film, this guy is making plays at the line of scrimmage coming from the third level. He’s got such a high football IQ. He diagnoses things so quickly and can react to it.”
Putting the oh! in offensive line
The Buckeyes’ offense played by far its worst game last week against Nebraska, running for 2.6 yards per carry (removing sacks) and going 1 for 10 on third down.
The biggest issue is the season-ending injury left tackle Josh Simmons suffered in the Oregon game, which took away the Buckeyes’ most important offensive lineman. Zen Michalski, whom Ohio State coaches believed was capable of becoming a solid replacement, struggled against Nebraska and then left with his own injury. Michalski’s status for Saturday is uncertain. Plan C could involve moving guard Donovan Jackson to left tackle, Ohio State coach Ryan Day said this week.
One Big Ten defensive coordinator said the problem is Ohio State’s offensive line, even at full strength, wasn’t that impressive. Now here comes a Penn State defensive front that stacks up fairly well.
“They’re ridiculous up front, particularly No. 11 (Abdul Carter),” one of the head coaches who has played Penn State said. “He’s a freak show.”
Another head coach said of the 252-pound Carter, “He’s a high-level pass rusher, maybe the best in the country. But you can have success running at him. They have some limitations at linebacker, in space, not on downhill runs, but in space.”
Both of those head coaches were impressed with the athleticism of Penn State’s interior linemen, including Freaks Lister Zane Durant.
Few if any teams in the country have a more impressive array of playmakers than Ohio State, with running backs Quinshon Judkins and TreVeyon Henderson both averaging over 6.0 yards per carry and freshman receiver Jeremiah Smith already overshadowing veteran running mate Emeka Egbuka, who was a preseason All-American.
The moment Jeremiah Smith tied Cris Carter’s @OhioStateFB freshman TD record of eight 🙌#B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/7yoKFxy2Rn
— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 26, 2024
Another Big Ten defensive coordinator called the Buckeyes “one of the most talented teams I’ve ever played against.”
“Offensively, they are committed more to the run this year,” the coordinator said. “I figured in the big games they’d run the quarterback more, but I don’t know. They didn’t give their best performance at Oregon, and then they follow it back up with a poor performance against Nebraska.”
He added, “If you took the Nebraska performance out, I would’ve said Ohio State wins this game by two touchdowns.”
The Ohio State quarterback, a Pennsylvania native and Kansas State transfer, made it very clear how much he was looking forward to facing the in-state program that didn’t want him coming out of high school.
“I grew up a Penn State fan. I wanted to go there my whole life. They didn’t think I was good enough. But, I guess, we’ll see next week if I was.”
🗣️ Will Howard, a Pennsylvania native, is “stoked” about playing at Beaver Stadium #B1GFootball pic.twitter.com/vWrw5Ql9eN
— Big Ten Network (@BigTenNetwork) October 27, 2024
Howard has played well, ranking second in the nation in passer efficiency at 183.9. But coaches who have faced him view him as a very good player, not a special one.
“He’s a very system guy, which means he knows what you’re in, they know what we’re in. And they tell him, ‘OK, it’s one of these two guys. Just look over there.’ Hardly do you ever see him scan the field, go left to right. He’s not like that. He’s one, two, I’m staring, I’m staring, I’m staring. I’m gonna throw the ball anyway.”
Most of Howard’s running has been in the red zone so far; he has five rushing touchdowns but only 91 yards. It wouldn’t be surprising if offensive coordinator Chip Kelly got Howard more involved in the running game this week.
Another head coach who has faced the Buckeyes said Howard is absolutely good enough to activate Ohio State’s weaponry.
“You really just need to be like a great point guard. You don’t gotta score 40, but you got to score 10 and find a way to allow the other guys to score 40,” the head coach said. “I don’t think he’s a game manager because I don’t want to minimize his role in the offense, but he doesn’t need to win it by himself.”
(Top illustration: Meech Robinson for The Athletic; Photos: Tom Hauck, Scott Taetsch, Randy Litzinger / Icon Sportswire, Getty Images)
