If you’re a hockey fan and love power rankings, you got some great news a few days ago: The Friday rankings have returned.
There’s a common misconception that there’s some sort of rivalry between those rankings and these ones. But there isn’t, because we’re trying to do different things. These rankings are the long-term view, while the Friday boys are more of an immediate snapshot. I do my thing, Dom and Other Sean do theirs, and the readers win. A rivalry? Not even close.
They were a few weeks late to the season, though, especially since we’ve already been hard at work on two weeks’ worth of rankings under our belt. I wonder why that was. Let’s see what they had to say about that:
“Sure, we could’ve assembled our little list last week — but there were teams that had only played three games. It felt wrong. Integrity counts, professionally and personally, and some sample sizes are simply too small.”
(Does an extended Kubrick Stare off into the middle distance like Gary Roberts before a playoff game.)
Integrity? Fine, a rivalry it is. Here are five issues I had with the first set of rankings from those two Taylor Swift lyric-loving weirdos.
Bonus five: Things those dumb Friday guys got wrong in their initial rankings
5. They had the Capitals in the top 10 — Sorry, I’m not buying it, even with a 5-1-0 start before they ran into the Lightning on Saturday. If we’re giving credit for early season five-win surprises, I’d prefer the Blues and maybe even the Flames. Who have the Capitals even beaten? (Actually looks at schedule.) OK, fine, but other than the Golden Knights, Stars and Devils, who have they even beaten? Let’s see what they do with the Rangers tomorrow and then we can talk.
4. They’re too low on the Devils — This is a bit of a weird one for me, because I feel like I’ve been more bearish on the Devils than most, and have pushed back on the idea that they should be automatically grouped with the elite Cup contenders. But having them ranked behind not just the Capitals but also the Leafs and Lightning and just one spot ahead of the Kings seems like an overreaction. Yes, they should probably figure out a way to get their supposedly improved goalie tandem to stop doing stuff like this, but they’re still a top 10 team in my mind.
3. They have the Sharks ranked 32nd — Honestly, might be optimistic.
2. They had the 5-0-2 Wild ahead of the 7-0-0 Jets — Both fan bases have spent the last week being mad at me for not believing in them enough, and I think one case is stronger than the other for reasons I touched on here.
In short: The Jets finished last year with the same regular-season record as the eventual Stanley Cup champions, so it’s possible we should be taking them much more seriously than most of us seem to be. Meanwhile, the Wild missed the playoffs, so aren’t they more likely to be the fluke here? (Yes, they had injuries, which is both a significant factor in their disappointing year and one I think some of their fans are overstating.) If I was making my rankings based on a shorter-term view, I’d take the perfect team over the one that had won five of seven, especially when one of those losses was in their only head-to-head meeting.
The undefeated Jets pulled off an overtime win against the division rival Wild on Oct. 13. (Terrence Lee / Imagn Images)
Does that mean the Jets are in my top five this week? We’ll get to that in a bit, but I’d certainly have them ahead of Minnesota.
By the way, I wrote all of that before the Wild lost to the Flyers in regulation. Speaking of which …
1. They didn’t factor in anything at all that happened over the weekend — Just lazy if you ask me.
So yeah, the rivalry is on. I expect all my readers to swear loyalty oaths, get at least one “Monday Rankings 4 Life” tattoo and boycott all of Gentille’s podcasts. Wait, that last one might be a bad idea. Crap, let’s hope I put more thought into this week’s rankings than I did into this fake rivalry thing …
Road to the Cup
The five teams with the best chances of winning the Stanley Cup.
Remember, fans of contending teams: It’s never too early to decide your team’s entire season rests on them acquiring a certain player on the trade market.
5. Vegas Golden Knights (6-2-1, +14 true goals differential*) — With the Oilers still missing a gear, the Knights become one of two new teams to crack this week’s list. They got Shea Theodore locked up, too.
4. Winnipeg Jets (8-0-0, +20) — Not much to say, except yes, of course the Jets have to crack the top five this week, as a team that was already a contender and has come into the season red-hot. If you missed it, be sure to check out Murat’s sit-down with Scott Arniel.
3. Florida Panthers (6-3-1, even) — The completely unnecessary little cross-check is what really makes it:
This is a Matthew Tkachuk clip if I’ve ever seen one 😭 pic.twitter.com/X1iLMJgOG5
— Brady Trettenero (@BradyTrett) October 27, 2024
2. New York Rangers (6-1-1, +18) — Everyone who listens to either of the podcasts knows this song by now, but I continue to not understand why potentially elite young players are signing seven- and eight-year extensions rather than betting on themselves. No, I wouldn’t turn down $52 million if I was Alexis Lafrenière. I wouldn’t turn down a Happy Meal and a fistful of change, but I’m not an elite athlete just entering my prime. Tidy work by the Rangers who are winning on and off the ice these days.
1. Dallas Stars (7-2-0, +11) — We get a really nice early season showdown this week, with the Stars facing the Panthers in an old-school back-to-back in Tampere, Finland on Friday and Saturday.
*Goals differential without counting shootout decisions like the NHL does for some reason.
Not ranked: Boston Bruins — Crisis averted, at least for now. Heading into the weekend with three straight losses and some ugly numbers up and down the roster, the Bruins felt like a team that desperately needed a win. Fortunately, playoff mode kicked in just in time as the Bruins found a way past the Maple Leafs.
It was a fittingly dramatic end to a week that saw the Bruins’ issues bubble to the surface of the league’s attention. In addition to mounting losses and worrying analytics, we had a mini-controversy over coach Jim Montgomery’s outburst toward Brad Marchand. The captain calmed that situation down quickly, so all’s well that ends well. The question is whether the Bruins’ larger problems have actually ended, or whether beating a slumping Leafs team is just a temporary pause on the narrative.
This is still a team sitting at .500 and tied for third in their division, so it’s not like we’re into emergency territory here. But expectations in Boston are high, and the team hasn’t delivered on them yet. Marchand hadn’t scored until Saturday. The newly signed Jeremy Swayman hasn’t looked like the star he’s now paid to be. David Pastrňák hasn’t been great. Center remains a question mark, even with Elias Lindholm. And nobody on the roster is having anything you’d call a breakout start other than maybe Cole Koepke.
Plenty of teams would love to switch problems with the Bruins, but that’s not a short list of issues. For now, they’ve got the Flyers twice this week, so the chance to keep banking points is there. While you can’t just ignore the warning signs, this still feels like a team that’s earned some benefit of the doubt over the years. For now, let’s say they’re well out of the top five running, but hardly worth any sort of panic mode. (Unless they get swept by the Flyers, in which case fire everyone.)
The bottom five
The five teams that are headed toward dead last and the best lottery odds for James Hagens, or maybe someone else.
Are the Predators so back, as the kids would say? They responded to last week’s callout with a 3-0-0 week, so maybe. But let’s see how this week goes, as they’ve got the Lightning, Oilers and Avalanche up next. Run that table, and we might not even need to cancel any concerts for this bunch.
5. Philadelphia Flyers (2-6-1, -14) — This one came down to the Flyers and Habs, who were kind enough to face each other last night and make life easy on us. Here you go, Flyers fans, you can stop lobbying me for a spot now.
4. Anaheim Ducks (3-4-1, -6) — The real-world standings say they’re not bad. Dom’s projected standings say don’t get used to it. But for now, it’s been the Lukáš Dostál show, with the 24-year-old looking like he may not be ready to just hand the starting job back to John Gibson when the veteran returns.
3. Columbus Blue Jackets (3-3-1, +3) — They’ve alternated wins and losses all season long. If that pattern continues, that would mean a win over the Oilers tonight and the Jets on Friday. If that happens, it might be time to start writing those “These guys are better than we think” pieces.
2. Chicago Blackhawks (2-6-1, -9) — This was fun:
During the intermission Shoot the Puck contest on Friday night, Ron Jurinek scored both shots in memory of his son, Jake, a lifelong Blackhawks supporter. The Jacob Jurinek Foundation will donate $100 for each home goal scored by the Blackhawks this season, turning every goal… pic.twitter.com/hLqJggurWh
— Chicago Blackhawks (@NHLBlackhawks) October 27, 2024
1. San Jose Sharks (0-7-2, -20) — Hey, remember when we made “Well at least they won’t start the season with 11 straight losses again” jokes? They’re up to nine, with games against Utah, Los Angeles, Chicago and Vancouver coming up this week, as that old familiar feeling sinks in. Maybe even worse, promising rookie Will Smith has not looked good.
Not ranked: Pittsburgh Penguins — The bad news is they’re a mess. The worse news is I have zero idea how you even start to fix it. I’m not sure Kyle Dubas does either.
The Penguins entered the 2024-25 season with an apparent plan. They were old, expensive and not necessarily very good, but there was enough talent to hope enough would break right to get them back into the playoffs. Once they were there, some puck luck and hot goaltending arriving at just the right time to supplement the remaining veteran magic of Sidney Crosby and friends could add up to just enough to make things interesting.
I didn’t say it was a good plan, but it was a plan. So far, it’s not working.
The goaltending stinks, so much so that Tristan Jarry was sent down to the AHL over the weekend. It’s technically a loan and not a demotion, with the whole thing framed as a conditioning assignment. The condition they’re trying to address is that Jarry hasn’t been able to stop a puck this year. Did we mention the big contract? There’s also the big contract. With nominal starter Alex Nedeljkovic looking so-so after a return from injury, the position is a major weakness right now.
There was a time when the Penguins could have outscored that problem. They’re trying, and have scored six goals in all three wins this year. But that means they’re 0-for-7 when they score fewer than six, which isn’t a path to the playoffs. It’s been Evgeni Malkin carrying the offense, which is very cool to see from a 38-year-old. But Crosby has just one goal, Erik Karlsson looks old and Kris Letang just seems washed. Old, slow and relying on Joel Blomqvist is no way to go through an NHL season, at least one that was supposed to feature a playoff chase.
Instead, they’ve lost five straight, they’re blowing leads and columnists are using words like “disastrous.”.
So what should Dubas do now? As I said, I’ve got no idea. Trades are rare at this time of year, it’s not like other teams are lining up for a piece of the Penguins roster and the picks and prospects cupboard is mostly barren. There aren’t any difference-makers waiting in the AHL, and no big names ready to return from injury. This is just what they are.
That leads to questions about a coaching change, which is the one card always available to a GM without any other answers. Two things have been true in Pittsburgh for the last several years: Mike Sullivan always seems to be on the hot seat, and he also always seems to have just recently signed a multiyear extension that makes that speculation seem moot.
So now what? Maybe nothing, aside from continuing to play out the schedule and hoping things turn around. It could happen. Maybe Jarry can rediscover his game and/or Nedeljkovic can shake off the rust. Or maybe Crosby just decides he’s not going to spend the last chapter of his career this way, and puts the team on his back for as long as he can. Maybe Dubas defies the conventional wisdom and finds a way to swing an actual hockey trade that gets the team back on track.
Or maybe the window well and truly slams shut, the Penguins are an afterthought and Crosby’s final years are spent on a mushy-middle team that can’t rebuild or contend. That seems to be where we’re headed, but it’s early. That might be the only good news to be found in Pittsburgh these days.
(Top photo: Bob DeChiara / Imagn Images)
