The 49ers' shrinking window and how Brock Purdy fits (or might not): Sando's Pick Six

Sunday provided an extreme example of what the San Francisco 49ers can look like, at their worst, with Brock Purdy left to fend for himself on offense.

Star running back Christian McCaffrey remained out. Starting receiver Deebo Samuel fell ill shortly before kickoff and lasted three snaps. The other starting receiver, Brandon Aiyuk, suffered a likely season-ending knee injury shortly before halftime.

If Purdy had carried the 49ers past the two-time defending Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs with all that stacked against him, what else would remain for him to prove? That Purdy tossed three interceptions in a dreary 28-18 defeat might not change how the 49ers feel about their QB.

But the moment does provide an opening to consider the 49ers’ future as they move closer to the day when the 2024 season ends and Purdy becomes eligible for a massive contract extension.

“It could get tricky for them,” an exec from another team said.

The Pick Six column leads with the 49ers’ future in light of their 3-4 start to the season and important decisions that await. The full menu:

• Brock Purdy and the 49ers’ future
• A new Deshaun Watson conversation
• NFC North fallout: Lions, Vikings, Pack
• Jerry Jones is no Al Davis (that’s a good thing)
• Saints’ cap problems aren’t cap problems
• Two-minute drill: Tomlin’s QB decision

1. The 49ers are 3-4 and suffering from injuries that could threaten their championship window. What happens when they pay Purdy?

Purdy and Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes combined for zero touchdown passes and five interceptions Sunday. It was possibly a one-off game for both teams, unless the 49ers have reached a breaking point with injuries, which is possible.

Before Sunday, this 49ers season was largely a testament to Purdy’s ability to produce in an offense lacking McCaffrey, who remains sidelined indefinitely. Purdy was scrambling more and completing longer passes into tighter windows, which some saw as evidence that he’s more than just another system quarterback in a Kyle Shanahan offense.

Yes, Purdy struggled against the Chiefs’ man coverage schemes without McCaffrey, Aiyuk and Samuel there to help him (Aiyuk dropped a long pass at one point). But he has shown an ability to produce without all of his weaponry available.

The table below compares Purdy’s career production with and without McCaffrey on the field, provided either Aiyuk or Samuel was on the field when McCaffrey was not. This seemed like a fair way to measure Purdy’s production without McCaffrey, who is an elite game-plan consideration, provided Purdy still had at least one of his starting receivers.

The numbers are barely distinguishable.

Even the best quarterbacks require a baseline level of weaponry to operate. Purdy likely dipped below that baseline Sunday against a very good Chiefs defense.

The larger trend is clear. Purdy’s production through 34 regular-season and postseason starts outpaces the production of his predecessor, Jimmy Garoppolo, under Shanahan. While the 49ers led the Chiefs by 10 points in separate Super Bowls with each of these QBs in the lineup, only to lose, Purdy has been demonstrably better.

That’s all fine, but what happens if, two years from now, Purdy is earning $55-60 million per year and San Francisco no longer has the roster to support him?

There are early signs the 49ers could be trending in that direction.

The 49ers could have decisions to make at receiver. Aiyuk and Samuel have option bonuses due in March; Aiyuk’s is guaranteed, while Samuel’s is not. The gap between the start of the league year and when those bonuses are due could provide a trade window before the bonuses hit the 49ers’ cap. Aiyuk’s knee injury could complicate things, but it’s fair to wonder what the longer-term future holds.

Left tackle Trent Williams is year-to-year at age 36. Tight end George Kittle, 31, will be in a contract year next season and could have leverage with a higher cap number.

San Francisco’s roster this season is the NFL’s third-oldest by snap-weighted average age. The Chiefs’ roster, in contrast, is the third-youngest by the same measure. That reveals which team is set up better for the long term.

While the Chiefs were restocking their defense through the draft in recent years, using first-round picks on cornerback Trent McDuffie and defensive end George Karlaftis, the 49ers were trading away a haul of picks in the ill-fated move to acquire Trey Lance.

San Francisco has funneled cash into its defense, signing Javon Hargrave (who is out for the season with a triceps injury) for $21 million per year. The 49ers have also hit on mid- and late-round picks. But they still have the NFL’s oldest offense and eighth-oldest defense, weighted for playing time.

“That is probably San Francisco’s biggest issue,” a different exec said. “They are starting to feel three first-round picks for Trey Lance. They have done a good job drafting with later picks. It is great they got Purdy. He makes up for one of those first-round picks, but not two others.”

Execs around the league have anticipated the 49ers extending Purdy’s contract in the coming offseason — his first time eligible for a new deal — even though Purdy is signed through 2025.

“They need to make a decision about whether they should just be moving on from this older core and building around Purdy, or do they trade Purdy, get stuff for him and go with a cheaper option at quarterback?” another exec said.

Wait, what?

Purdy is one of 45 quarterbacks to make at least 10 starts since 2022. He ranks first among them in passer rating (107.9), yards per pass attempt (9.2) and EPA per pass play (.214).

Who would trade a young quarterback as productive as that? The answer, so far, has been nobody. The exec was merely suggesting that Purdy, while good, does not belong in Tier 1 or the top of Tier 2, and that other teams in similar situations might have been better off, in retrospect, swinging trades than paying top dollar for their quarterbacks.

The Los Angeles Rams with Jared Goff, the Miami Dolphins with Tua Tagovailoa, the Dallas Cowboys with Dak Prescott and the Minnesota Vikings entering their final season with Kirk Cousins were among the examples he cited.

“It’s about being a guy being a dude, and Purdy is not in that ‘dude’ category,” the exec said.

The more likely scenario: Purdy and the 49ers reaching an agreement on an extension before the 2025 season.

“When you have a head coach that has the vision, you know what it is going to look like in the future,” another exec said. “Having the quarterback signed adds to the predictability. You are able to navigate. A lot of other things fall into place, and you can continue to build it as the cap increases.”

There’s much to consider. The 49ers are home against the Cowboys in Week 8, followed by a bye and, two days later, the Nov. 5 trade deadline.

“A lot of people would trade their situations with San Francisco,” the exec added. “They just aren’t as deep as they typically have been.”

2. The Cleveland Browns lost Deshaun Watson to a likely season-ending torn Achilles tendon in their 21-14 loss to Cincinnati. We go beyond the complicated reactions.

Last week, we considered potential Cleveland exit strategies concerning quarterback Deshaun Watson. The conversation changed Sunday when Watson dropped back to pass, planted his back leg and crumpled to the ground.

Cleveland fans upset with the organization for investing so much in a player facing more than 20 lawsuits alleging sexual misconduct cheered as Watson writhed on the grass at the newly renamed Huntington Bank Field. Some of Watson’s teammates took offense.

“We should be ashamed of ourselves as Browns and as fans to boo anyone and their downfall,” defensive end Myles Garrett said.

Backup quarterback Jameis Winston cast Watson as a victim.

#Browns Jameis Winston on fans cheering Deshaun Watson while he was down on the field with his season-ending torn Achilles pic.twitter.com/RphsiUMxG6

— Mary Kay Cabot (@MaryKayCabot) October 20, 2024

The football-related implications are significant. The Browns bought injury insurance for Watson. That could provide some cash and salary-cap relief for the team, especially if Watson misses games next season, when his salary is a fully guaranteed $46 million.

The long recovery time for Watson also could make it easier for the Browns’ football leadership to convince ownership to head in another direction at the position, as fans have hoped they would. The team’s financial commitment to Watson has guaranteed him a spot in the lineup to this point. That cannot be the case indefinitely.

By this season’s end, Watson will have missed 33 of 52 games (including playoffs) — 11 due to suspension and 22 due to injury — since Cleveland acquired him. Watson also suffered two torn ACLs previously, one while practicing at Clemson, another while practicing with the Houston Texans. Availability was always a concern.

Watson’s play in the 19 games he did start for the Browns has been shockingly unproductive. He ranks 43rd in EPA per pass play among 45 quarterbacks with at least 10 starts since 2022.

Fans frustrated with the Browns for sticking with Watson despite his historically poor production can feel better about the team now that another quarterback will be in the lineup.

There are people to feel good about in Cleveland. Nick Chubb scored a touchdown in his first game back from a horrific knee injury, providing a welcome feel-good moment Sunday.

The offense perked up in the fourth quarter once Winston replaced backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson following another QB injury, helping the Browns top 300 yards for the first time in a game this season. They still have yet to exceed 18 points in a game. Only nine teams since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger have had longer such streaks to open a season.

That leaves the Cleveland Browns as the only team in NFL or FBS that hasn’t scored 20+ points in a game this season

— Josh Dubow (@JoshDubowAP) October 19, 2024

The final nine games of this Browns season will likely provide additional damning statistical splits on what surely now must be the worst trade in league history. The offense seemingly cannot get worse.

3. The Lions sent a message to the Vikings, who sent a message back. The NFC North fun also extended to Lambeau Field, where Green Bay’s defense was again the equalizer. Let’s sort through the takeaways.

The Lions needed a last-minute field goal to score a 31-29 victory over the Vikings in a game that answered lingering questions.

• Lions message: Detroit brazenly attempted a fake punt on fourth-and-7 from its own 33-yard line on the game’s opening possession. Did the Lions think the Vikings, coming off a bye week, were not wise to their tricky tendencies? They apparently did not care then, or when Minnesota jumped to a 10-0 lead after one quarter. The Lions scored 21 unanswered points in a display that screamed, “You are a nice story, but we are the better team.”

Jared Goff in particular was exceptional. He has now completed 75 of 97 passes (77 percent) with five touchdowns and no interceptions in three games against Minnesota since Brian Flores became the Vikings’ defensive coordinator last season. He averaged 0.495 EPA per pass play Sunday, by far the best full-game figure for any quarterback against the Flores-era Vikings.

Minnesota still ranks second in defensive EPA per play this season, but the Lions showed again they can do more than function against this difficult-to-solve Vikings defense.

• Vikings rebuttal: We entered Sunday wondering how Vikings quarterback Sam Darnold would fare if forced to play from behind. Darnold had attempted only two passes while trailing all season before Sunday. He was managing the Vikings’ success and contributing to it, not driving it. Minnesota’s defensive dominance drove its 5-0 start. What would happen when an opponent took a lead as large as the 21-10 margin Detroit built?

It wasn’t looking good for Darnold when the Lions’ Brian Branch intercepted him on the quarterback’s third pass after Detroit had taken a 14-10 lead late in the second quarter. But Darnold persevered. He completed 15 of 18 passes for 211 yards and a touchdown while trailing in this game. His passer rating (110.9), yards per attempt (11.7) and EPA per pass play (0.3) while trailing Sunday were all exceptional.

No one can say Darnold imploded when forced to play from behind. That’s great for the Vikings, even if this defeat stung.

Goff completed 10 of 11 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown when Minnesota led. And with Jahmyr Gibbs contributing two touchdown runs, including a 45-yarder, Detroit was able to win.

• Green Bay’s day: Jordan Love, whose eight interceptions are tied for the NFL lead even though he missed two starts, isn’t apologizing for possessing the Brett Favre risk-taking gene. He sometimes makes spectacular throws when routine ones are available. The payoff can be large, but the two picks he tossed Sunday cost the team 10.4 EPA.

Love has thrown at least one interception in each of his first five starts of 2024. That ties Love with Don Majkowski (1991) for the fourth-longest such streak for a Packers quarterback since 1970 (three Green Bay quarterbacks had six-game streaks, most recently Randy Wright in 1986, per Pro Football Reference). Four games was Favre’s longest streak to start a season with the Packers, so Love is in some notable territory here.

The day is coming when the Packers will need Love to minimize risk.

In the meantime, Green Bay’s defense has become the equalizer.

The Packers held Houston’s C.J. Stroud to 10 of 21 passing for 86 yards with four sacks — and still needed a last-second field goal to beat the Texans, 24-22.

Green Bay’s defense has finished with positive EPA six times this season, the most for a Packers defense through seven games since at least 2000. That made it much easier for Love to say what he said Sunday: “You can’t try to not be aggressive and take checkdowns all day. You have to be aggressive and go win those games. I’m going to play the way I play, learn from the mistakes and grow from them.”

4. It’s been a rough week for Dallas Cowboys owner Jerry Jones, but a good decade by aging Hall of Fame owner/general manager standards. Raiders fans can attest to that.

Jones’ Cowboys won three Super Bowls in his first seven seasons of ownership (1989-95). They haven’t reached a conference championship game in the past 28, most of which came after Jones wrested control of the roster from the first coach he hired, Jimmy Johnson.

Dallas’ 47-9 defeat to Detroit in Week 6 invited scrutiny, including from the Cowboys’ flagship radio hosts, which Jones used as an opportunity to command the spotlight, his specialty.

If you haven’t heard the now-legendary radio segment where #JerryJones threatens to fire the hosts at the station carrying his games, for daring to ask questions about the #Cowboys sorry state….

— Mark Davis (@MarkDavis) October 16, 2024

Jones’ overriding focus on marketing is intertwined with his desire to drive the conversation around his team, which might work against Dallas winning at the highest levels.

Whatever Jones’ motives were in this latest attention grab, we sometimes forget he is 82 and has maintained a level of success that could reflect changes in productivity for people his age. His Cowboys have remained competitive through Jones’ 70s and into his 80s with him remaining GM and face of the franchise. Dallas has avoided the Raiders’ spiral when their Hall of Fame owner/GM, Al Davis, was similarly aged and empowered.

Davis is the relevant comp for Jones. Both were owner/GMs whose teams won championships before the salary cap went into effect in 1993, and before teams learned to manage the cap years later. Both had to adjust to a new world thereafter. Davis got his Raiders to another Super Bowl (2002 season) when he was 73, but his team went into sharp decline from that point forward. Jones has kept his team in the mix.

Jones is 82, the age Davis was when he died four games into the 2011 season.

Davis’ ownership of the Raiders, which I trace to 1966, when he became part-owner, peaked at 146 games above .500 in his age-73 season. The team was 54 games below .500 over the remainder of Davis’ life. Jones is 33 games above .500 over the corresponding age period, but he is still measured against his franchise’s championship success decades ago.

Is 82 the new 70? Davis seemed much older in his late 70s and early 80s than Jones seems now. There are other differences.

“Al did not surround himself with people who would tell him no,” an exec who knew Davis said. “The structure Jerry has built for himself is better.”

While Davis was unwilling to cede control over personnel, Jones has leaned on his son, Stephen, and vice president of player personnel Will McClay over much of the last decade. That might be the key distinction relating to on-field success between Jones and Davis in their later years.

5. The New Orleans Saints’ unfolding salary-cap mess isn’t really a salary-cap mess at its core.

The Saints were so bad against the Sean Payton-coached Denver Broncos on Thursday night that they could have let another former New Orleans coach, Jim Mora, handle the postgame news conference.

On this night welcoming back former #saints coaches we need to let Jim Mora handle the postgame pic.twitter.com/LT5rYhzPtl

— Mike Sando (@SandoNFL) October 18, 2024

The fallout from the Saints’ 33-10 defeat has centered around a brutal salary-cap situation for New Orleans, one that critics have called inevitable. Told-ya-so takes have merit only to an extent.

I really don’t think folks understand the true scope of this disaster for New Orleans.

Their team is dreadful & old, and they have *no way to fix it* for a minimum of 3 more years.

The cap mismanagement that *some of us* have been discussing for years is coming home to roost.

— nick wright (@getnickwright) October 18, 2024

The cap remains poorly understood partly because teams invoke it misleadingly when explaining why they make decisions. The Saints’ situation can help illustrate how the cap works.

Every team can extend its window by pushing cap implications into the future. This works if owners are willing to keep investing cash, if future salary-cap limits increase and, critically, if teams draft well and invest in the right players.

The Saints’ cap problems are really player problems.

“Anytime these teams get into cap trouble, it’s always player issues,” a team contract negotiator said. “They are not doing a good enough job of projecting when their players are going to decline, and they keep on pushing, pushing, pushing.”

New Orleans’ cap management worked when the Saints had Drew Brees playing at a high level and when they scored big in the 2017 draft with Alvin Kamara, Marshon Lattimore, Trey Hendrickson, Ryan Ramczyk and Marcus Williams.

For the current Saints, Cameron Jordan and Demario Davis are 35. Tyrann Mathieu is 32. Taysom Hill is an expensive part-time player. Ramczyk might never play again because of injuries. Those five are scheduled to count nearly $70 million against the Saints’ salary cap in 2025. New Orleans reworked their contracts and others to comply with the cap and add players such as quarterback Derek Carr.

If those players had bright futures and the Saints had continued drafting well after that 2017 blockbuster class, their cap situation would not be the problem that it is right now. New Orleans could keep reworking contracts, pushing cap charges into the future.

Instead, the Saints are stuck. You can say they mismanaged the cap, but more than that, they misevaluated the players they bet on.

“When you are doubling down on older, declining players, it is just a bad place to be in,” another exec said.

6. Two-minute drill: Mike Tomlin’s handling of the Steelers’ QB situation was only mysterious from afar

Tomlin benched Justin Fields for Russell Wilson and got a 37-15 victory over the New York Jets featuring Wilson’s third-best statistical game in 31 starts since leaving Seattle.

Wilson completed 16 of 29 passes for 264 yards and two touchdowns without an interception, and with only one sack. His EPA per pass play (0.23) was his third-highest over the past three seasons and his highest since a 2023 Week 4 victory at Chicago.

Thus ended an unconventional week of quarterback messaging from the Steelers’ coach.

Why would Tomlin consider replacing Fields after Fields had 10 total touchdowns with only two turnovers during the Steelers’ 4-2 start to the season? It was a great question for those who had not studied the Steelers’ offense.

“I can’t even fathom trying to tell Justin Fields, ‘Yeah, bro, you are going to sit down after being 4-2 coming out of a quarterback battle,” the analyst and former quarterback J.T. O’Sullivan said on his Patreon channel, The QB School, before studying Fields and the Steelers’ offense in their Week 6 game at Las Vegas.

Here’s what O’Sullivan said after studying every offensive play from the Steelers’ victory over the Raiders: “The film is bad. The score does not look as bad as the film is. You are winning. But I get it. I don’t even have to go back and watch another game. This game makes me feel like we are potentially … Justin Fields in trouble here. I totally understand why they would think that.”

Brandon Marshall stops by the postgame presser and asks Mike Tomlin if it was one of his boldest decisions to start Russell Wilson.

Tomlin: “that’s why I’m well-compensated.” pic.twitter.com/fQ5bdMsOtA

— Brooke Pryor (@bepryor) October 21, 2024

• Amari Cooper’s four catches for 66 yards and a touchdown beat Davante Adams’ three catches for 30 yards and no scores among veteran wideouts acquired by trade last week. Each receiver was credited with a drop. Cooper had two receptions gaining more than 15 yards. Adams had none.

• The Jacksonville Jaguars’ 32-16 victory over the New England Patriots featured coach Doug Pederson alluding to the “middle eight” minutes during his on-field halftime interview.

Teams love the idea of breaking open close games by scoring late in the first half, then scoring early in the second half.

Jacksonville’s 15-0 differential across the final four minutes of the first half and the first four minutes of the second half Sunday was their largest in a game since 2011, and their third-largest since 2000, per TruMedia.

The Patriots’ minus-15 differential in the middle eight minutes was New England’s worst since at least 2000, spanning the entirety of the Bill Belichick era.

Patriots coach Jerod Mayo calling his team “soft” after this defeat recalled another linebacker-turned-coach, Antonio Pierce, accusing his players of making “business decisions” in the Raiders’ 36-22 defeat to Carolina (Pierce later apologized).

Linebackers play with great emotion. They also sometimes speak with emotion after difficult defeats.

Patriots HC Jerod Mayo: “We’re a soft football team across the board.” pic.twitter.com/ofTxcyTBq9

— Doug Kyed (@DougKyed) October 20, 2024

New England’s six-game losing streak is its longest since the 1993 team lost 11 of its first 12, including seven in a row. Robert Kraft purchased the team after that season.

• The Indianapolis Colts won 16-10 Sunday with Anthony Richardson completing only 10 of 24 passes for 129 yards. They won because they were facing the Miami Dolphins, whose quarterback situation remains dire while starter Tua Tagovailoa recovers from his concussion.

The schedule now gets tougher for Indianapolis with games against Houston (road), Minnesota (road), Buffalo (home), the New York Jets (road) and Detroit (home) next.

The Colts will need greater passing proficiency to beat those teams. They know they can get improved passing proficiency from Joe Flacco, but they also want to develop Richardson. It’s looking like that balancing act will define this season for Indianapolis unless Richardson makes progress quickly.

• Saquon Barkley’s 176-yard rushing performance in his return to MetLife Stadium as a member of the Philadelphia Eagles was bad for the New York Giants.

Barkley’s performance contributing to a 28-3 Eagles victory was worse.

Having these things happen after “Hard Knocks” cameras recorded Giants owner John Mara saying he would “lose sleep” if Barkley, a fan favorite, signed with Philly in free agency? On a day when Giants quarterback Daniel Jones passed for 99 yards and took seven sacks? Rough.

“I’ll have a tough time sleeping if Saquon goes to Philadelphia” – Giants owner John Mara
pic.twitter.com/LO7OMnRMlD

— Crossing Broad (@CrossingBroad) July 17, 2024

• A few things stood out about the Seattle Seahawks’ 34-14 victory at Atlanta.

Indoor Geno Smith continued to excel. Smith has 25 touchdown passes with five interceptions in 12 indoor starts with Seattle (outdoors: 32 TDs, 22 INTs).

Seattle dominated in all three phases. This was the seventh time in 422 regular-season and postseason Seahawks games since 2000 that the team finished plus-5.0 EPA or better on offense, defense and special teams. Five of the other six games fell during the Pete Carroll era, most recently against the New York Jets in 2020.

The Seahawks’ defense was able to get the Falcons into third-and-6 or longer seven times, most for Seattle since Week 2. These plays produced a defensive touchdown when Boye Mafe sacked Kirk Cousins, forcing a fumble that Derick Hall returned for a touchdown.

The Athletic’s Ted Nguyen recently wrote about Los Angeles Chargers defensive coordinator Jesse Minter causing problems for opponents after getting them into third-down situations with at least 6 yards needed for a first down.

Seattle runs a similar scheme under coach Mike Macdonald, who worked with Minter in Baltimore. Sunday provided a glimpse of Macdonald’s defense in those situations.

THAT’S A DEFENSIVE TD!!! pic.twitter.com/O3atYPnaM7

— Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) October 20, 2024

(Photo: Ezra Shaw / Getty Images)